FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
52%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.152.93safe0.82–2.750.29–2.011.11–4.75safer0.56–3.010.04–2.250.60–5.26actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.293.859.14safe3.44–7.152.14–5.565.58–12.70safer2.94–7.651.67–6.024.61–13.67
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction13.769.9523.71safe10.06–17.466.57–13.3216.63–30.79safer9.03–18.505.64–14.2614.66–32.75
Shots in box
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.453.177.63safe1.94–6.970.87–5.482.81–12.45safer1.07–7.840.08–6.271.15–14.11
Blocked shots
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.142.74safe0.02–3.190.00–2.550.00–5.74safer0.00–3.720.00–3.040.00–6.76
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.013.138.14safe2.80–7.211.15–5.113.95–12.32safer2.21–7.810.61–5.642.82–13.45
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.3745.97safe47.05–59.6939.65–52.29safer45.46–61.2838.05–53.89
Passes
71%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction432366798safe367–497301–431668–928safer349–515284–448633–963
Pass accuracy %
69%
26%
homeawayprediction72.7768.21safe68.56–76.9963.71–72.72safer67.26–78.2962.38–74.05
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4713.2924.76safe8.61–14.3310.35–16.2418.96–30.56safer7.73–15.219.43–17.1617.16–32.37
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.733.67safe0.73–3.150.57–2.901.30–6.05safer0.39–3.500.24–3.230.63–6.72
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.723.33safe0.55–2.660.60–2.841.15–5.51safer0.28–2.940.31–3.130.59–6.07
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.070.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.685.44safe1.34–4.171.13–4.242.47–8.40safer0.95–4.560.70–4.671.65–9.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.82–2.75 0.56–3.01 | 2.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.04–2.25 | 1.00 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.60–5.26 | 3.00 | 52% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.29 3.44–7.15 2.94–7.65 | — | 3.85 2.14–5.56 1.67–6.02 | — | 9.14 5.58–12.70 4.61–13.67 | — | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 13.76 10.06–17.46 9.03–18.50 | — | 9.95 6.57–13.32 5.64–14.26 | — | 23.71 16.63–30.79 14.66–32.75 | — | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 4.45 1.94–6.97 1.07–7.84 | — | 3.17 0.87–5.48 0.08–6.27 | — | 7.63 2.81–12.45 1.15–14.11 | — | 61% 13% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 1.60 0.02–3.19 0.00–3.72 | — | 1.14 0.00–2.55 0.00–3.04 | — | 2.74 0.00–5.74 0.00–6.76 | — | 48% 25% 27% |
| Corners | 5.01 2.80–7.21 2.21–7.81 | — | 3.13 1.15–5.11 0.61–5.64 | — | 8.14 3.95–12.32 2.82–13.45 | — | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 53.37 47.05–59.69 45.46–61.28 | — | 45.97 39.65–52.29 38.05–53.89 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 432 367–497 349–515 | — | 366 301–431 284–448 | — | 798 668–928 633–963 | — | 71% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.77 68.56–76.99 67.26–78.29 | — | 68.21 63.71–72.72 62.38–74.05 | — | — | — | 69% 26% |
| Fouls | 11.47 8.61–14.33 7.73–15.21 | — | 13.29 10.35–16.24 9.43–17.16 | — | 24.76 18.96–30.56 17.16–32.37 | — | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.73–3.15 0.39–3.50 | — | 1.73 0.57–2.90 0.24–3.23 | — | 3.67 1.30–6.05 0.63–6.72 | — | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.55–2.66 0.28–2.94 | — | 1.72 0.60–2.84 0.31–3.13 | — | 3.33 1.15–5.51 0.59–6.07 | — | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.34–4.17 0.95–4.56 | — | 2.68 1.13–4.24 0.70–4.67 | — | 5.44 2.47–8.40 1.65–9.23 | — | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.