FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.192.62safe0.47–2.390.33–2.050.80–4.44safer0.21–2.650.09–2.300.29–4.95actual0.004.004.00
Shots on target
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.749.29safe2.69–6.413.03–6.445.72–12.85safer2.19–6.902.56–6.914.76–13.82
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8412.6725.50safe9.13–16.549.29–16.0518.42–32.59safer8.10–17.578.36–16.9816.46–34.55
Shots in box
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction5.388.6414.02safe2.86–7.896.34–10.949.20–18.84safer2.00–8.765.55–11.747.54–20.50
Blocked shots
27%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.553.516.07safe0.97–4.142.10–4.933.07–9.07safer0.44–4.671.61–5.412.05–10.09
Corners
43%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.424.468.88safe2.21–6.632.48–6.444.70–13.07safer1.62–7.221.95–6.983.57–14.20
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction47.9151.34safe41.60–54.2345.02–57.66safer40.00–55.8343.42–59.25
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction374394768safe309–439329–458638–898safer291–457312–476603–933
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction68.1971.20safe63.98–72.4166.70–75.71safer62.68–73.7165.37–77.04
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5112.9424.45safe8.66–14.379.99–15.8818.65–30.25safer7.77–15.269.08–16.8016.85–32.06
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.753.53safe0.57–2.990.58–2.911.15–5.90safer0.23–3.330.25–3.240.48–6.58
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.963.48safe0.47–2.580.84–3.081.31–5.66safer0.20–2.850.55–3.370.75–6.22
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.050.12safe0.00–0.220.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.692.825.51safe1.27–4.101.27–4.382.54–8.48safer0.88–4.490.84–4.811.72–9.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 0.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.09–2.30 | 4.00 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.29–4.95 | 4.00 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.69–6.41 2.19–6.90 | — | 4.74 3.03–6.44 2.56–6.91 | — | 9.29 5.72–12.85 4.76–13.82 | — | 41% 13% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.84 9.13–16.54 8.10–17.57 | — | 12.67 9.29–16.05 8.36–16.98 | — | 25.50 18.42–32.59 16.46–34.55 | — | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 5.38 2.86–7.89 2.00–8.76 | — | 8.64 6.34–10.94 5.55–11.74 | — | 14.02 9.20–18.84 7.54–20.50 | — | 16% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 2.55 0.97–4.14 0.44–4.67 | — | 3.51 2.10–4.93 1.61–5.41 | — | 6.07 3.07–9.07 2.05–10.09 | — | 27% 15% 57% |
| Corners | 4.42 2.21–6.63 1.62–7.22 | — | 4.46 2.48–6.44 1.95–6.98 | — | 8.88 4.70–13.07 3.57–14.20 | — | 43% 14% 44% |
| Possession % | 47.91 41.60–54.23 40.00–55.83 | — | 51.34 45.02–57.66 43.42–59.25 | — | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 374 309–439 291–457 | — | 394 329–458 312–476 | — | 768 638–898 603–933 | — | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.19 63.98–72.41 62.68–73.71 | — | 71.20 66.70–75.71 65.37–77.04 | — | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.51 8.66–14.37 7.77–15.26 | — | 12.94 9.99–15.88 9.08–16.80 | — | 24.45 18.65–30.25 16.85–32.06 | — | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.57–2.99 0.23–3.33 | — | 1.75 0.58–2.91 0.25–3.24 | — | 3.53 1.15–5.90 0.48–6.58 | — | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.58 0.20–2.85 | — | 1.96 0.84–3.08 0.55–3.37 | — | 3.48 1.31–5.66 0.75–6.22 | — | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.27–4.10 0.88–4.49 | — | 2.82 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.81 | — | 5.51 2.54–8.48 1.72–9.30 | — | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.