Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.382.67safe0.32–2.250.53–2.230.84–4.49safer0.07–2.510.30–2.460.36–4.97
Shots on target
42%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.354.468.81safe2.49–6.222.72–6.205.21–12.42safer2.00–6.712.25–6.674.25–13.38
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6910.9421.63safe6.76–14.617.38–14.5014.14–29.11safer5.67–15.706.42–15.4612.09–31.16
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.537.5115.03safe4.58–10.474.83–10.199.41–20.66safer3.75–11.304.09–10.937.84–22.22
Blocked shots
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.842.865.70safe0.96–4.731.20–4.512.17–9.24safer0.42–5.270.71–5.001.13–10.27
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.034.899.92safe2.82–7.242.89–6.895.71–14.13safer2.24–7.822.36–7.424.60–15.24
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.4551.60safe41.66–55.2444.81–58.38safer39.99–56.9143.14–60.06
Passes
40%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction394423817safe327–461356–489683–950safer309–479339–507647–986
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction73.3073.53safe69.27–77.3369.21–77.86safer67.98–78.6267.90–79.17
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1013.4327.53safe11.26–16.9310.48–16.3721.74–33.31safer10.50–17.699.74–17.1220.24–34.81
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.973.92safe0.79–3.110.88–3.071.67–6.18safer0.49–3.410.59–3.351.08–6.77
Yellow cards
40%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.172.204.37safe1.12–3.221.07–3.332.19–6.55safer0.86–3.490.78–3.621.64–7.11
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.110.25safe0.00–0.310.00–0.290.00–0.60safer0.00–0.460.00–0.420.00–0.88
GK saves
38%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.196.15safe1.52–4.401.64–4.753.16–9.14safer1.14–4.781.21–5.172.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.25 0.07–2.51 | 1.38 0.53–2.23 0.30–2.46 | 2.67 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.97 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.35 2.49–6.22 2.00–6.71 | 4.46 2.72–6.20 2.25–6.67 | 8.81 5.21–12.42 4.25–13.38 | 42% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 10.69 6.76–14.61 5.67–15.70 | 10.94 7.38–14.50 6.42–15.46 | 21.63 14.14–29.11 12.09–31.16 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 7.53 4.58–10.47 3.75–11.30 | 7.51 4.83–10.19 4.09–10.93 | 15.03 9.41–20.66 7.84–22.22 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 2.84 0.96–4.73 0.42–5.27 | 2.86 1.20–4.51 0.71–5.00 | 5.70 2.17–9.24 1.13–10.27 | 41% 17% 42% |
| Corners | 5.03 2.82–7.24 2.24–7.82 | 4.89 2.89–6.89 2.36–7.42 | 9.92 5.71–14.13 4.60–15.24 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 48.45 41.66–55.24 39.99–56.91 | 51.60 44.81–58.38 43.14–60.06 | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 394 327–461 309–479 | 423 356–489 339–507 | 817 683–950 647–986 | 40% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.30 69.27–77.33 67.98–78.62 | 73.53 69.21–77.86 67.90–79.17 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 14.10 11.26–16.93 10.50–17.69 | 13.43 10.48–16.37 9.74–17.12 | 27.53 21.74–33.31 20.24–34.81 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 1.97 0.88–3.07 0.59–3.35 | 3.92 1.67–6.18 1.08–6.77 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.17 1.12–3.22 0.86–3.49 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 4.37 2.19–6.55 1.64–7.11 | 40% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.40 1.14–4.78 | 3.19 1.64–4.75 1.21–5.17 | 6.15 3.16–9.14 2.35–9.96 | 38% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.