FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
32%
27%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.362.54safe0.21–2.140.50–2.220.72–4.36safer0.00–2.400.26–2.470.21–4.87actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.304.258.56safe2.45–6.162.55–5.964.99–12.12safer1.95–6.662.08–6.434.03–13.09
Total shots
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.019.0018.01safe5.31–12.715.62–12.3810.93–25.09safer4.28–13.754.69–13.318.96–27.05
Shots in box
34%
40%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction0.720.581.30safe0.00–3.230.00–2.880.00–6.11safer0.00–4.100.00–3.670.00–7.77
Blocked shots
22%
53%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction0.370.410.78safe0.00–1.960.00–1.820.00–3.78safer0.00–2.490.00–2.310.00–4.80
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.104.359.45safe2.90–7.312.37–6.335.27–13.63safer2.30–7.901.83–6.874.14–14.77
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.3254.07safe39.00–51.6447.75–60.39safer37.40–53.2346.15–61.98
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction330410740safe265–395345–474610–870safer247–413328–492575–905
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction63.7469.03safe59.53–67.9664.52–73.54safer58.23–69.2663.19–74.87
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0812.9226.00safe10.23–15.949.97–15.8620.20–31.81safer9.34–16.839.06–16.7818.40–33.61
Offsides
23%
46%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction0.450.581.02safe0.00–1.660.00–1.740.00–3.40safer0.00–2.000.00–2.070.00–4.07
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.903.42safe0.46–2.580.78–3.021.24–5.60safer0.19–2.850.49–3.310.68–6.16
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.060.21safe0.00–0.300.00–0.260.00–0.56safer0.00–0.450.00–0.400.00–0.85
GK saves
32%
36%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction0.780.791.58safe0.00–2.200.00–2.350.00–4.54safer0.00–2.590.00–2.780.00–5.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.21–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 2.00 | 1.36 0.50–2.22 0.26–2.47 | 1.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.21–4.87 | 3.00 | 32% 27% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.30 2.45–6.16 1.95–6.66 | — | 4.25 2.55–5.96 2.08–6.43 | — | 8.56 4.99–12.12 4.03–13.09 | — | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 9.01 5.31–12.71 4.28–13.75 | — | 9.00 5.62–12.38 4.69–13.31 | — | 18.01 10.93–25.09 8.96–27.05 | — | 45% 45% |
| Shots in box | 0.72 0.00–3.23 0.00–4.10 | — | 0.58 0.00–2.88 0.00–3.67 | — | 1.30 0.00–6.11 0.00–7.77 | — | 34% 40% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 0.37 0.00–1.96 0.00–2.49 | — | 0.41 0.00–1.82 0.00–2.31 | — | 0.78 0.00–3.78 0.00–4.80 | — | 22% 53% 25% |
| Corners | 5.10 2.90–7.31 2.30–7.90 | — | 4.35 2.37–6.33 1.83–6.87 | — | 9.45 5.27–13.63 4.14–14.77 | — | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 45.32 39.00–51.64 37.40–53.23 | — | 54.07 47.75–60.39 46.15–61.98 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 330 265–395 247–413 | — | 410 345–474 328–492 | — | 740 610–870 575–905 | — | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.74 59.53–67.96 58.23–69.26 | — | 69.03 64.52–73.54 63.19–74.87 | — | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 13.08 10.23–15.94 9.34–16.83 | — | 12.92 9.97–15.86 9.06–16.78 | — | 26.00 20.20–31.81 18.40–33.61 | — | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 0.45 0.00–1.66 0.00–2.00 | — | 0.58 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.07 | — | 1.02 0.00–3.40 0.00–4.07 | — | 23% 46% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.46–2.58 0.19–2.85 | — | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | — | 3.42 1.24–5.60 0.68–6.16 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | — | 82% |
| GK saves | 0.78 0.00–2.20 0.00–2.59 | — | 0.79 0.00–2.35 0.00–2.78 | — | 1.58 0.00–4.54 0.00–5.37 | — | 32% 36% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.