FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.302.98safe0.72–2.650.45–2.161.16–4.81safer0.46–2.900.22–2.380.68–5.29
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.463.878.34safe2.60–6.332.13–5.624.73–11.94safer2.11–6.821.67–6.083.78–12.90
Total shots
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0714.1626.23safe8.15–16.0010.60–17.7218.74–33.72safer7.05–17.099.64–18.6816.69–35.77
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.307.7215.02safe4.36–10.245.04–10.409.40–20.64safer3.53–11.074.30–11.147.83–22.21
Blocked shots
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.915.91safe1.11–4.881.26–4.572.37–9.45safer0.57–5.420.77–5.061.34–10.48
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.524.019.53safe3.30–7.732.01–6.015.31–13.74safer2.73–8.311.48–6.544.21–14.85
Possession %
52%
44%
homeawayprediction50.3548.70safe43.56–57.1441.92–55.49safer41.89–58.8140.25–57.16
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction404379784safe337–471313–446650–917safer319–489295–463614–953
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction66.7972.56safe62.76–70.8268.24–76.89safer61.47–72.1266.93–78.20
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0812.1524.23safe9.24–14.919.21–15.1018.45–30.01safer8.48–15.678.46–15.8516.94–31.52
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.903.87safe0.81–3.130.80–2.991.62–6.12safer0.51–3.430.52–3.281.03–6.71
Yellow cards
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.633.05safe0.38–2.480.50–2.750.87–5.23safer0.11–2.740.21–3.050.32–5.79
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
35%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.095.74safe1.22–4.091.53–4.652.75–8.74safer0.83–4.481.11–5.071.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.72–2.65 0.46–2.90 | 1.30 0.45–2.16 0.22–2.38 | 2.98 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.33 2.11–6.82 | 3.87 2.13–5.62 1.67–6.08 | 8.34 4.73–11.94 3.78–12.90 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 12.07 8.15–16.00 7.05–17.09 | 14.16 10.60–17.72 9.64–18.68 | 26.23 18.74–33.72 16.69–35.77 | 31% 62% |
| Shots in box | 7.30 4.36–10.24 3.53–11.07 | 7.72 5.04–10.40 4.30–11.14 | 15.02 9.40–20.64 7.83–22.21 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.00 1.11–4.88 0.57–5.42 | 2.91 1.26–4.57 0.77–5.06 | 5.91 2.37–9.45 1.34–10.48 | 43% 17% 40% |
| Corners | 5.52 3.30–7.73 2.73–8.31 | 4.01 2.01–6.01 1.48–6.54 | 9.53 5.31–13.74 4.21–14.85 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 50.35 43.56–57.14 41.89–58.81 | 48.70 41.92–55.49 40.25–57.16 | — | 52% 44% |
| Passes | 404 337–471 319–489 | 379 313–446 295–463 | 784 650–917 614–953 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.79 62.76–70.82 61.47–72.12 | 72.56 68.24–76.89 66.93–78.20 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 12.08 9.24–14.91 8.48–15.67 | 12.15 9.21–15.10 8.46–15.85 | 24.23 18.45–30.01 16.94–31.52 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.90 0.80–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.38–2.48 0.11–2.74 | 1.63 0.50–2.75 0.21–3.05 | 3.05 0.87–5.23 0.32–5.79 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.09 1.53–4.65 1.11–5.07 | 5.74 2.75–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 35% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+