FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.172.95safe0.81–2.740.32–2.031.13–4.77safer0.56–3.000.09–2.260.65–5.25
Shots on target
62%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.613.287.89safe2.75–6.471.53–5.024.28–11.49safer2.26–6.961.07–5.493.33–12.45
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0610.1525.21safe11.14–18.996.59–13.7117.73–32.70safer10.05–20.085.63–14.6715.68–34.75
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.206.2615.46safe6.26–12.143.58–8.949.84–21.08safer5.43–12.972.84–9.688.27–22.65
Blocked shots
56%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.602.696.28safe1.71–5.481.03–4.342.75–9.82safer1.17–6.020.54–4.831.71–10.85
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.523.589.10safe3.30–7.731.58–5.584.89–13.31safer2.73–8.301.05–6.123.78–14.42
Possession %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction52.7246.54safe45.93–59.5139.76–53.32safer44.26–61.1838.08–55.00
Passes
66%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction422372794safe355–490305–438660–928safer337–508288–456625–963
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction72.9770.04safe68.94–77.0065.72–74.37safer67.65–78.2964.41–75.68
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7113.2825.00safe8.88–14.5510.34–16.2319.22–30.78safer8.12–15.319.59–16.9817.71–32.29
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.963.88safe0.76–3.080.87–3.061.63–6.14safer0.46–3.380.58–3.341.04–6.73
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.753.38safe0.59–2.690.62–2.871.21–5.56safer0.32–2.950.32–3.170.65–6.12
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.473.415.88safe1.03–3.911.85–4.962.88–8.87safer0.65–4.291.43–5.392.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.81–2.74 0.56–3.00 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.65–5.25 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.61 2.75–6.47 2.26–6.96 | 3.28 1.53–5.02 1.07–5.49 | 7.89 4.28–11.49 3.33–12.45 | 62% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.06 11.14–18.99 10.05–20.08 | 10.15 6.59–13.71 5.63–14.67 | 25.21 17.73–32.70 15.68–34.75 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 9.20 6.26–12.14 5.43–12.97 | 6.26 3.58–8.94 2.84–9.68 | 15.46 9.84–21.08 8.27–22.65 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.71–5.48 1.17–6.02 | 2.69 1.03–4.34 0.54–4.83 | 6.28 2.75–9.82 1.71–10.85 | 56% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 5.52 3.30–7.73 2.73–8.30 | 3.58 1.58–5.58 1.05–6.12 | 9.10 4.89–13.31 3.78–14.42 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 52.72 45.93–59.51 44.26–61.18 | 46.54 39.76–53.32 38.08–55.00 | — | 62% 34% |
| Passes | 422 355–490 337–508 | 372 305–438 288–456 | 794 660–928 625–963 | 66% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.97 68.94–77.00 67.65–78.29 | 70.04 65.72–74.37 64.41–75.68 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 11.71 8.88–14.55 8.12–15.31 | 13.28 10.34–16.23 9.59–16.98 | 25.00 19.22–30.78 17.71–32.29 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.46–3.38 | 1.96 0.87–3.06 0.58–3.34 | 3.88 1.63–6.14 1.04–6.73 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.95 | 1.75 0.62–2.87 0.32–3.17 | 3.38 1.21–5.56 0.65–6.12 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.03–3.91 0.65–4.29 | 3.41 1.85–4.96 1.43–5.39 | 5.88 2.88–8.87 2.07–9.68 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+