FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
22%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.153.07safe0.96–2.890.29–2.001.25–4.90safer0.71–3.140.06–2.230.77–5.37
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.083.798.87safe3.21–6.942.05–5.535.26–12.47safer2.72–7.431.58–6.004.31–13.43
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction15.278.6323.90safe11.34–19.195.07–12.1916.41–31.38safer10.25–20.284.11–13.1514.36–33.43
Shots in box
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction9.335.6514.99safe6.39–12.272.97–8.349.36–20.61safer5.56–13.102.24–9.077.80–22.18
Blocked shots
46%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.276.78safe1.63–5.391.62–4.923.24–10.31safer1.08–5.931.13–5.422.21–11.35
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.743.449.18safe3.52–7.951.44–5.444.96–13.39safer2.95–8.520.91–5.973.86–14.50
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.5045.39safe47.71–61.2938.61–52.18safer46.04–62.9636.94–53.85
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction483395877safe415–550328–461744–1011safer397–568311–479708–1047
Pass accuracy %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction77.8870.22safe73.85–81.9165.90–74.55safer72.56–83.2064.59–75.86
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0111.8123.82safe9.17–14.858.87–14.7618.04–29.60safer8.42–15.618.12–15.5016.54–31.11
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.042.024.06safe0.88–3.200.93–3.111.80–6.31safer0.58–3.500.64–3.401.21–6.90
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.963.40safe0.40–2.490.83–3.091.22–5.58safer0.13–2.760.54–3.380.67–6.14
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.255.94safe1.26–4.131.69–4.812.95–8.94safer0.87–4.521.27–5.232.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 0.96–2.89 0.71–3.14 | 1.15 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.23 | 3.07 1.25–4.90 0.77–5.37 | 55% 22% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.21–6.94 2.72–7.43 | 3.79 2.05–5.53 1.58–6.00 | 8.87 5.26–12.47 4.31–13.43 | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 15.27 11.34–19.19 10.25–20.28 | 8.63 5.07–12.19 4.11–13.15 | 23.90 16.41–31.38 14.36–33.43 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 9.33 6.39–12.27 5.56–13.10 | 5.65 2.97–8.34 2.24–9.07 | 14.99 9.36–20.61 7.80–22.18 | 80% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.63–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 3.27 1.62–4.92 1.13–5.42 | 6.78 3.24–10.31 2.21–11.35 | 46% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.52–7.95 2.95–8.52 | 3.44 1.44–5.44 0.91–5.97 | 9.18 4.96–13.39 3.86–14.50 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 54.50 47.71–61.29 46.04–62.96 | 45.39 38.61–52.18 36.94–53.85 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 483 415–550 397–568 | 395 328–461 311–479 | 877 744–1011 708–1047 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.88 73.85–81.91 72.56–83.20 | 70.22 65.90–74.55 64.59–75.86 | — | 82% 15% |
| Fouls | 12.01 9.17–14.85 8.42–15.61 | 11.81 8.87–14.76 8.12–15.50 | 23.82 18.04–29.60 16.54–31.11 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 2.02 0.93–3.11 0.64–3.40 | 4.06 1.80–6.31 1.21–6.90 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.40–2.49 0.13–2.76 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.40 1.22–5.58 0.67–6.14 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.26–4.13 0.87–4.52 | 3.25 1.69–4.81 1.27–5.23 | 5.94 2.95–8.94 2.14–9.75 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+