FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.192.52safe0.36–2.290.34–2.050.69–4.34safer0.10–2.540.11–2.270.21–4.82
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.264.068.32safe2.40–6.122.32–5.814.72–11.93safer1.91–6.611.86–6.273.76–12.88
Total shots
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction9.929.4419.36safe6.00–13.855.87–13.0011.87–26.84safer4.91–14.944.91–13.969.82–28.90
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction7.857.0514.90safe4.91–10.804.37–9.739.28–20.53safer4.08–11.633.63–10.477.71–22.09
Blocked shots
48%
18%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.862.445.31safe0.98–4.750.79–4.101.77–8.84safer0.44–5.290.30–4.590.74–9.88
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.299.37safe2.86–7.292.29–6.295.15–13.58safer2.29–7.861.76–6.834.05–14.69
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.3948.56safe44.60–58.1841.77–55.34safer42.93–59.8540.10–57.01
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction419397816safe352–486331–464682–950safer333–504313–481647–985
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction69.8168.18safe65.78–73.8463.86–72.51safer64.49–75.1362.55–73.82
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6012.8425.44safe9.76–15.439.90–15.7819.65–31.22safer9.00–16.199.15–16.5318.15–32.72
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.023.96safe0.79–3.110.92–3.111.71–6.22safer0.49–3.410.64–3.401.12–6.81
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.843.61safe0.73–2.820.71–2.971.43–5.79safer0.46–3.090.42–3.260.88–6.35
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.933.286.21safe1.49–4.361.73–4.843.22–9.20safer1.10–4.751.30–5.262.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.36–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.19 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.27 | 2.52 0.69–4.34 0.21–4.82 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.26 2.40–6.12 1.91–6.61 | 4.06 2.32–5.81 1.86–6.27 | 8.32 4.72–11.93 3.76–12.88 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 9.92 6.00–13.85 4.91–14.94 | 9.44 5.87–13.00 4.91–13.96 | 19.36 11.87–26.84 9.82–28.90 | 50% 41% |
| Shots in box | 7.85 4.91–10.80 4.08–11.63 | 7.05 4.37–9.73 3.63–10.47 | 14.90 9.28–20.53 7.71–22.09 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 2.86 0.98–4.75 0.44–5.29 | 2.44 0.79–4.10 0.30–4.59 | 5.31 1.77–8.84 0.74–9.88 | 48% 18% 34% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.86–7.29 2.29–7.86 | 4.29 2.29–6.29 1.76–6.83 | 9.37 5.15–13.58 4.05–14.69 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 51.39 44.60–58.18 42.93–59.85 | 48.56 41.77–55.34 40.10–57.01 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 419 352–486 333–504 | 397 331–464 313–481 | 816 682–950 647–985 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.81 65.78–73.84 64.49–75.13 | 68.18 63.86–72.51 62.55–73.82 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 12.60 9.76–15.43 9.00–16.19 | 12.84 9.90–15.78 9.15–16.53 | 25.44 19.65–31.22 18.15–32.72 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 2.02 0.92–3.11 0.64–3.40 | 3.96 1.71–6.22 1.12–6.81 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.61 1.43–5.79 0.88–6.35 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.49–4.36 1.10–4.75 | 3.28 1.73–4.84 1.30–5.26 | 6.21 3.22–9.20 2.41–10.02 | 36% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.