FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
21%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.122.023.14safe0.15–2.091.17–2.881.32–4.96safer0.00–2.340.94–3.100.84–5.44
Shots on target
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.775.349.11safe1.90–5.633.60–7.095.50–12.71safer1.41–6.123.14–7.554.55–13.67
Total shots
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2113.5324.73safe7.28–15.139.96–17.0917.25–32.22safer6.19–16.229.01–18.0515.20–34.27
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction6.9410.1017.04safe3.99–9.887.42–12.7811.41–22.66safer3.16–10.716.68–13.529.85–24.23
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.976.78safe0.93–4.692.31–5.623.24–10.31safer0.38–5.241.82–6.112.20–11.35
Corners
32%
13%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.898.88safe1.77–6.202.89–6.894.66–13.09safer1.20–6.772.36–7.423.56–14.20
Possession %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction41.6758.88safe34.88–48.4652.10–65.67safer33.21–50.1350.42–67.34
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction348495843safe281–415429–561709–977safer263–433411–579674–1012
Pass accuracy %
16%
80%
homeawayprediction71.7078.82safe67.67–75.7374.50–83.14safer66.38–77.0273.19–84.45
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5211.9824.50safe9.68–15.359.04–14.9318.72–30.28safer8.92–16.118.29–15.6717.21–31.78
Offsides
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.252.034.28safe1.09–3.410.93–3.122.03–6.53safer0.79–3.710.64–3.411.44–7.12
Yellow cards
44%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.563.36safe0.75–2.850.43–2.691.19–5.54safer0.49–3.120.14–2.980.63–6.10
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.212.645.85safe1.77–4.641.08–4.202.85–8.84safer1.38–5.030.66–4.622.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.15–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 2.02 1.17–2.88 0.94–3.10 | 3.14 1.32–4.96 0.84–5.44 | 21% 21% 58% |
| Shots on target | 3.77 1.90–5.63 1.41–6.12 | 5.34 3.60–7.09 3.14–7.55 | 9.11 5.50–12.71 4.55–13.67 | 24% 64% |
| Total shots | 11.21 7.28–15.13 6.19–16.22 | 13.53 9.96–17.09 9.01–18.05 | 24.73 17.25–32.22 15.20–34.27 | 28% 64% |
| Shots in box | 6.94 3.99–9.88 3.16–10.71 | 10.10 7.42–12.78 6.68–13.52 | 17.04 11.41–22.66 9.85–24.23 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 2.81 0.93–4.69 0.38–5.24 | 3.97 2.31–5.62 1.82–6.11 | 6.78 3.24–10.31 2.20–11.35 | 26% 14% 60% |
| Corners | 3.99 1.77–6.20 1.20–6.77 | 4.89 2.89–6.89 2.36–7.42 | 8.88 4.66–13.09 3.56–14.20 | 32% 13% 55% |
| Possession % | 41.67 34.88–48.46 33.21–50.13 | 58.88 52.10–65.67 50.42–67.34 | — | 14% 83% |
| Passes | 348 281–415 263–433 | 495 429–561 411–579 | 843 709–977 674–1012 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.70 67.67–75.73 66.38–77.02 | 78.82 74.50–83.14 73.19–84.45 | — | 16% 80% |
| Fouls | 12.52 9.68–15.35 8.92–16.11 | 11.98 9.04–14.93 8.29–15.67 | 24.50 18.72–30.28 17.21–31.78 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.25 1.09–3.41 0.79–3.71 | 2.03 0.93–3.12 0.64–3.41 | 4.28 2.03–6.53 1.44–7.12 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.49–3.12 | 1.56 0.43–2.69 0.14–2.98 | 3.36 1.19–5.54 0.63–6.10 | 44% 23% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.77–4.64 1.38–5.03 | 2.64 1.08–4.20 0.66–4.62 | 5.85 2.85–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+