FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.572.87safe0.34–2.270.71–2.421.05–4.70safer0.09–2.520.49–2.650.57–5.18
Shots on target
41%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.384.558.93safe2.52–6.242.81–6.305.33–12.54safer2.03–6.732.35–6.764.37–13.49
Total shots
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5514.6525.20safe6.62–14.4711.08–18.2117.71–32.68safer5.53–15.5610.12–19.1715.66–34.73
Shots in box
36%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction7.087.9815.07safe4.14–10.025.30–10.679.44–20.69safer3.31–10.854.57–11.407.88–22.26
Blocked shots
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.005.86safe0.98–4.751.35–4.652.33–9.40safer0.44–5.290.86–5.151.29–10.43
Corners
43%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.644.639.27safe2.42–6.852.63–6.635.06–13.48safer1.85–7.432.10–7.163.95–14.59
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction47.1153.34safe40.32–53.9046.55–60.12safer38.65–55.5744.88–61.79
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction362427789safe294–429361–493655–922safer276–447343–511619–958
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction63.5369.79safe59.50–67.5665.46–74.11safer58.21–68.8564.15–75.42
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6411.9524.59safe9.80–15.489.00–14.8918.80–30.37safer9.05–16.238.25–15.6417.30–31.87
Offsides
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.063.95safe0.74–3.060.96–3.151.70–6.20safer0.43–3.360.67–3.441.11–6.79
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.613.24safe0.58–2.680.48–2.741.06–5.42safer0.31–2.940.19–3.030.50–5.98
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.103.176.27safe1.66–4.541.61–4.723.27–9.26safer1.28–4.921.18–5.152.46–10.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.34–2.27 0.09–2.52 | 1.57 0.71–2.42 0.49–2.65 | 2.87 1.05–4.70 0.57–5.18 | 32% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.24 2.03–6.73 | 4.55 2.81–6.30 2.35–6.76 | 8.93 5.33–12.54 4.37–13.49 | 41% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 10.55 6.62–14.47 5.53–15.56 | 14.65 11.08–18.21 10.12–19.17 | 25.20 17.71–32.68 15.66–34.73 | 18% 76% |
| Shots in box | 7.08 4.14–10.02 3.31–10.85 | 7.98 5.30–10.67 4.57–11.40 | 15.07 9.44–20.69 7.88–22.26 | 36% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 2.86 0.98–4.75 0.44–5.29 | 3.00 1.35–4.65 0.86–5.15 | 5.86 2.33–9.40 1.29–10.43 | 39% 17% 44% |
| Corners | 4.64 2.42–6.85 1.85–7.43 | 4.63 2.63–6.63 2.10–7.16 | 9.27 5.06–13.48 3.95–14.59 | 43% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 47.11 40.32–53.90 38.65–55.57 | 53.34 46.55–60.12 44.88–61.79 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 362 294–429 276–447 | 427 361–493 343–511 | 789 655–922 619–958 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.53 59.50–67.56 58.21–68.85 | 69.79 65.46–74.11 64.15–75.42 | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.64 9.80–15.48 9.05–16.23 | 11.95 9.00–14.89 8.25–15.64 | 24.59 18.80–30.37 17.30–31.87 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.43–3.36 | 2.06 0.96–3.15 0.67–3.44 | 3.95 1.70–6.20 1.11–6.79 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.68 0.31–2.94 | 1.61 0.48–2.74 0.19–3.03 | 3.24 1.06–5.42 0.50–5.98 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.10 1.66–4.54 1.28–4.92 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.15 | 6.27 3.27–9.26 2.46–10.07 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+