FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.202.85safe0.68–2.610.35–2.061.02–4.67safer0.43–2.860.12–2.290.55–5.15
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.903.878.76safe3.03–6.762.12–5.615.16–12.37safer2.54–7.251.66–6.074.20–13.32
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2510.1224.37safe10.33–18.186.55–13.6816.88–31.85safer9.24–19.275.59–14.6414.83–33.90
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.066.5215.58safe6.12–12.003.84–9.209.96–21.20safer5.29–12.833.10–9.948.39–22.77
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.342.906.24safe1.46–5.231.24–4.552.70–9.78safer0.92–5.770.75–5.041.67–10.81
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.214.369.56safe2.99–7.422.36–6.365.35–13.78safer2.42–8.001.82–6.894.24–14.89
Possession %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction52.2947.21safe45.50–59.0840.42–53.99safer43.83–60.7538.75–55.66
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction447378825safe380–515312–445692–959safer362–533294–462656–995
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction74.7968.95safe70.76–78.8264.62–73.27safer69.47–80.1163.31–74.58
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7912.9124.70safe8.95–14.639.97–15.8618.92–30.48safer8.20–15.389.22–16.6117.42–31.99
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.101.924.02safe0.94–3.260.83–3.021.77–6.27safer0.64–3.560.54–3.301.18–6.86
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.913.47safe0.52–2.610.78–3.031.29–5.65safer0.25–2.880.49–3.330.74–6.21
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.416.16safe1.32–4.191.85–4.963.17–9.15safer0.93–4.581.43–5.392.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 0.68–2.61 0.43–2.86 | 1.20 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.85 1.02–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.03–6.76 2.54–7.25 | 3.87 2.12–5.61 1.66–6.07 | 8.76 5.16–12.37 4.20–13.32 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.25 10.33–18.18 9.24–19.27 | 10.12 6.55–13.68 5.59–14.64 | 24.37 16.88–31.85 14.83–33.90 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.06 6.12–12.00 5.29–12.83 | 6.52 3.84–9.20 3.10–9.94 | 15.58 9.96–21.20 8.39–22.77 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.34 1.46–5.23 0.92–5.77 | 2.90 1.24–4.55 0.75–5.04 | 6.24 2.70–9.78 1.67–10.81 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 5.21 2.99–7.42 2.42–8.00 | 4.36 2.36–6.36 1.82–6.89 | 9.56 5.35–13.78 4.24–14.89 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 52.29 45.50–59.08 43.83–60.75 | 47.21 40.42–53.99 38.75–55.66 | — | 60% 36% |
| Passes | 447 380–515 362–533 | 378 312–445 294–462 | 825 692–959 656–995 | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.79 70.76–78.82 69.47–80.11 | 68.95 64.62–73.27 63.31–74.58 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 11.79 8.95–14.63 8.20–15.38 | 12.91 9.97–15.86 9.22–16.61 | 24.70 18.92–30.48 17.42–31.99 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.10 0.94–3.26 0.64–3.56 | 1.92 0.83–3.02 0.54–3.30 | 4.02 1.77–6.27 1.18–6.86 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.61 0.25–2.88 | 1.91 0.78–3.03 0.49–3.33 | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.74–6.21 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 3.41 1.85–4.96 1.43–5.39 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.36–9.97 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+