FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.273.13safe0.89–2.830.42–2.131.31–4.96safer0.64–3.080.19–2.350.83–5.44
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.098.95safe2.99–6.722.35–5.845.34–12.55safer2.50–7.211.88–6.304.39–13.51
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction14.058.8422.89safe10.13–17.975.28–12.4015.40–30.38safer9.03–19.074.32–13.3613.35–32.43
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction8.646.2514.89safe5.70–11.583.57–8.939.27–20.52safer4.87–12.412.84–9.677.70–22.08
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.303.226.52safe1.42–5.181.56–4.872.98–10.05safer0.88–5.731.07–5.361.95–11.09
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.263.759.02safe3.05–7.481.75–5.754.80–13.23safer2.48–8.051.22–6.283.70–14.34
Possession %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction53.8945.76safe47.10–60.6838.98–52.55safer45.43–62.3537.30–54.22
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction472383855safe405–539317–450722–989safer387–558299–467686–1025
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction78.7470.18safe74.71–82.7765.86–74.51safer73.42–84.0664.55–75.82
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6911.6824.37safe9.86–15.538.74–14.6318.59–30.16safer9.10–16.297.99–15.3717.09–31.66
Offsides
40%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.983.96safe0.82–3.140.89–3.071.71–6.21safer0.52–3.440.60–3.361.12–6.80
Yellow cards
30%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.903.39safe0.44–2.540.77–3.031.22–5.57safer0.18–2.810.48–3.320.66–6.13
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.080.20safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.55safer0.00–0.430.00–0.400.00–0.83
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.893.065.95safe1.46–4.331.50–4.622.96–8.94safer1.07–4.721.08–5.042.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.86 0.89–2.83 0.64–3.08 | 1.27 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.35 | 3.13 1.31–4.96 0.83–5.44 | 51% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.72 2.50–7.21 | 4.09 2.35–5.84 1.88–6.30 | 8.95 5.34–12.55 4.39–13.51 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.05 10.13–17.97 9.03–19.07 | 8.84 5.28–12.40 4.32–13.36 | 22.89 15.40–30.38 13.35–32.43 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 8.64 5.70–11.58 4.87–12.41 | 6.25 3.57–8.93 2.84–9.67 | 14.89 9.27–20.52 7.70–22.08 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.42–5.18 0.88–5.73 | 3.22 1.56–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 6.52 2.98–10.05 1.95–11.09 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.05 | 3.75 1.75–5.75 1.22–6.28 | 9.02 4.80–13.23 3.70–14.34 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 53.89 47.10–60.68 45.43–62.35 | 45.76 38.98–52.55 37.30–54.22 | — | 66% 29% |
| Passes | 472 405–539 387–558 | 383 317–450 299–467 | 855 722–989 686–1025 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.74 74.71–82.77 73.42–84.06 | 70.18 65.86–74.51 64.55–75.82 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.69 9.86–15.53 9.10–16.29 | 11.68 8.74–14.63 7.99–15.37 | 24.37 18.59–30.16 17.09–31.66 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.98 0.89–3.07 0.60–3.36 | 3.96 1.71–6.21 1.12–6.80 | 40% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.18–2.81 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.39 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.13 | 30% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.46–4.33 1.07–4.72 | 3.06 1.50–4.62 1.08–5.04 | 5.95 2.96–8.94 2.15–9.76 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+