FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
47%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.102.61safe0.55–2.480.25–1.950.79–4.44safer0.30–2.730.02–2.180.31–4.92
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.573.988.55safe2.71–6.432.24–5.724.95–12.16safer2.22–6.921.77–6.193.99–13.11
Total shots
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction13.139.6622.79safe9.20–17.056.10–13.2215.30–30.27safer8.11–18.145.14–14.1813.25–32.33
Shots in box
68%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction8.716.3415.05safe5.77–11.653.66–9.029.43–20.68safer4.94–12.482.93–9.767.86–22.24
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.635.94safe1.44–5.200.97–4.282.41–9.48safer0.89–5.740.48–4.771.37–10.52
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.279.54safe3.05–7.482.27–6.275.32–13.75safer2.48–8.051.74–6.804.22–14.86
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction53.5546.78safe46.76–60.3440.00–53.57safer45.09–62.0138.33–55.24
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction437360797safe370–504294–426663–931safer352–523276–444628–966
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction73.0567.22safe69.02–77.0862.90–71.55safer67.73–78.3761.59–72.86
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3312.6124.94safe9.49–15.179.67–15.5519.16–30.72safer8.74–15.928.92–16.3017.65–32.23
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.963.95safe0.83–3.150.87–3.061.70–6.20safer0.52–3.450.58–3.341.11–6.79
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.893.51safe0.57–2.660.76–3.021.33–5.68safer0.30–2.930.47–3.310.77–6.24
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.406.30safe1.46–4.341.84–4.953.30–9.29safer1.08–4.721.42–5.382.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.55–2.48 0.30–2.73 | 1.10 0.25–1.95 0.02–2.18 | 2.61 0.79–4.44 0.31–4.92 | 47% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.71–6.43 2.22–6.92 | 3.98 2.24–5.72 1.77–6.19 | 8.55 4.95–12.16 3.99–13.11 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.13 9.20–17.05 8.11–18.14 | 9.66 6.10–13.22 5.14–14.18 | 22.79 15.30–30.27 13.25–32.33 | 73% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.71 5.77–11.65 4.94–12.48 | 6.34 3.66–9.02 2.93–9.76 | 15.05 9.43–20.68 7.86–22.24 | 68% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.32 1.44–5.20 0.89–5.74 | 2.63 0.97–4.28 0.48–4.77 | 5.94 2.41–9.48 1.37–10.52 | 53% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.05 | 4.27 2.27–6.27 1.74–6.80 | 9.54 5.32–13.75 4.22–14.86 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 53.55 46.76–60.34 45.09–62.01 | 46.78 40.00–53.57 38.33–55.24 | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 437 370–504 352–523 | 360 294–426 276–444 | 797 663–931 628–966 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.05 69.02–77.08 67.73–78.37 | 67.22 62.90–71.55 61.59–72.86 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 12.33 9.49–15.17 8.74–15.92 | 12.61 9.67–15.55 8.92–16.30 | 24.94 19.16–30.72 17.65–32.23 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.52–3.45 | 1.96 0.87–3.06 0.58–3.34 | 3.95 1.70–6.20 1.11–6.79 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.51 1.33–5.68 0.77–6.24 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.46–4.34 1.08–4.72 | 3.40 1.84–4.95 1.42–5.38 | 6.30 3.30–9.29 2.49–10.10 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.