FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.382.75safe0.41–2.340.52–2.230.93–4.57safer0.15–2.590.29–2.460.45–5.05
Shots on target
39%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.604.969.57safe2.74–6.463.22–6.715.96–13.17safer2.25–6.952.76–7.175.00–14.13
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7714.3426.10safe7.84–15.6910.77–17.9018.61–33.59safer6.75–16.789.81–18.8616.56–35.64
Shots in box
33%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction6.998.2315.22safe4.05–9.935.55–10.919.60–20.85safer3.22–10.764.81–11.658.03–22.41
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.312.936.23safe1.43–5.191.27–4.582.70–9.77safer0.88–5.730.78–5.071.66–10.81
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.509.81safe3.10–7.532.50–6.505.60–14.02safer2.53–8.101.96–7.034.49–15.13
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction49.2249.32safe42.43–56.0142.54–56.11safer40.76–57.6840.87–57.78
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction362379741safe295–429313–446608–875safer276–447295–463572–911
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction63.9369.92safe59.90–67.9665.60–74.24safer58.61–69.2564.29–75.55
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2112.5224.73safe9.37–15.049.58–15.4718.95–30.51safer8.61–15.808.83–16.2117.44–32.01
Offsides
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.064.10safe0.89–3.210.96–3.151.85–6.36safer0.59–3.510.68–3.441.26–6.95
Yellow cards
36%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.653.19safe0.49–2.590.52–2.771.01–5.37safer0.23–2.860.23–3.070.45–5.92
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.983.166.14safe1.54–4.421.61–4.723.15–9.14safer1.16–4.801.18–5.142.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.41–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.45–5.05 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.74–6.46 2.25–6.95 | 4.96 3.22–6.71 2.76–7.17 | 9.57 5.96–13.17 5.00–14.13 | 39% 48% |
| Total shots | 11.77 7.84–15.69 6.75–16.78 | 14.34 10.77–17.90 9.81–18.86 | 26.10 18.61–33.59 16.56–35.64 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 6.99 4.05–9.93 3.22–10.76 | 8.23 5.55–10.91 4.81–11.65 | 15.22 9.60–20.85 8.03–22.41 | 33% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.43–5.19 0.88–5.73 | 2.93 1.27–4.58 0.78–5.07 | 6.23 2.70–9.77 1.66–10.81 | 48% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.10–7.53 2.53–8.10 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.96–7.03 | 9.81 5.60–14.02 4.49–15.13 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 49.22 42.43–56.01 40.76–57.68 | 49.32 42.54–56.11 40.87–57.78 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 362 295–429 276–447 | 379 313–446 295–463 | 741 608–875 572–911 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.93 59.90–67.96 58.61–69.25 | 69.92 65.60–74.24 64.29–75.55 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 12.21 9.37–15.04 8.61–15.80 | 12.52 9.58–15.47 8.83–16.21 | 24.73 18.95–30.51 17.44–32.01 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.59–3.51 | 2.06 0.96–3.15 0.68–3.44 | 4.10 1.85–6.36 1.26–6.95 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.23–2.86 | 1.65 0.52–2.77 0.23–3.07 | 3.19 1.01–5.37 0.45–5.92 | 36% 23% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.98 1.54–4.42 1.16–4.80 | 3.16 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.14 | 6.14 3.15–9.14 2.34–9.95 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+