FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.202.66safe0.50–2.440.34–2.050.84–4.49safer0.25–2.690.11–2.280.36–4.97
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.118.33safe2.35–6.082.37–5.854.72–11.93safer1.86–6.571.90–6.323.77–12.89
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4413.0524.48safe7.51–15.369.49–16.6117.00–31.97safer6.42–16.458.53–17.5714.95–34.02
Shots in box
40%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.207.6214.83safe4.26–10.154.94–10.309.20–20.45safer3.43–10.974.21–11.047.64–22.02
Blocked shots
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.795.73safe1.06–4.821.13–4.442.19–9.26safer0.51–5.360.64–4.931.15–10.30
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.429.26safe2.63–7.052.42–6.425.04–13.47safer2.05–7.631.88–6.953.94–14.58
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.3749.36safe43.58–57.1642.58–56.15safer41.91–58.8340.91–57.82
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction394370764safe327–461304–437630–898safer309–479286–454595–933
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction67.8070.29safe63.77–71.8365.96–74.61safer62.48–73.1364.65–75.92
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5012.7225.22safe9.66–15.339.77–15.6619.43–31.00safer8.90–16.099.03–16.4117.93–32.50
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.023.97safe0.79–3.110.93–3.111.72–6.22safer0.49–3.410.64–3.401.13–6.81
Yellow cards
34%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.653.10safe0.40–2.500.52–2.780.92–5.28safer0.13–2.770.23–3.070.37–5.84
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.125.95safe1.40–4.271.56–4.682.96–8.94safer1.01–4.661.14–5.102.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.20 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 2.66 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.97 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.22 2.35–6.08 1.86–6.57 | 4.11 2.37–5.85 1.90–6.32 | 8.33 4.72–11.93 3.77–12.89 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 11.44 7.51–15.36 6.42–16.45 | 13.05 9.49–16.61 8.53–17.57 | 24.48 17.00–31.97 14.95–34.02 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.20 4.26–10.15 3.43–10.97 | 7.62 4.94–10.30 4.21–11.04 | 14.83 9.20–20.45 7.64–22.02 | 40% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 2.94 1.06–4.82 0.51–5.36 | 2.79 1.13–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 5.73 2.19–9.26 1.15–10.30 | 44% 17% 39% |
| Corners | 4.84 2.63–7.05 2.05–7.63 | 4.42 2.42–6.42 1.88–6.95 | 9.26 5.04–13.47 3.94–14.58 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.37 43.58–57.16 41.91–58.83 | 49.36 42.58–56.15 40.91–57.82 | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 394 327–461 309–479 | 370 304–437 286–454 | 764 630–898 595–933 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.80 63.77–71.83 62.48–73.13 | 70.29 65.96–74.61 64.65–75.92 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 12.50 9.66–15.33 8.90–16.09 | 12.72 9.77–15.66 9.03–16.41 | 25.22 19.43–31.00 17.93–32.50 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 2.02 0.93–3.11 0.64–3.40 | 3.97 1.72–6.22 1.13–6.81 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.13–2.77 | 1.65 0.52–2.78 0.23–3.07 | 3.10 0.92–5.28 0.37–5.84 | 34% 24% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.12 1.56–4.68 1.14–5.10 | 5.95 2.96–8.94 2.15–9.76 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+