FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
21%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.163.20safe1.08–3.010.30–2.011.38–5.02safer0.83–3.260.07–2.240.90–5.50
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.019.39safe3.52–7.252.27–5.755.79–13.00safer3.03–7.741.80–6.224.83–13.95
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction15.299.5124.81safe11.37–19.225.95–13.0817.32–32.29safer10.28–20.314.99–14.0415.27–34.35
Shots in box
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.596.2315.82safe6.65–12.533.55–8.9110.20–21.45safer5.82–13.362.82–9.658.63–23.01
Blocked shots
44%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.443.346.78safe1.56–5.321.69–4.993.24–10.31safer1.01–5.861.19–5.492.21–11.35
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.773.749.51safe3.56–7.981.74–5.745.30–13.73safer2.98–8.561.21–6.284.19–14.83
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.0846.07safe46.29–59.8839.29–52.86safer44.62–61.5437.62–54.53
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction441352792safe373–508285–418659–926safer355–526268–436623–962
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction74.8968.44safe70.86–78.9264.12–72.76safer69.57–80.2162.81–74.07
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3811.1823.56safe9.54–15.218.24–14.1317.77–29.34safer8.78–15.977.49–14.8716.27–30.84
Offsides
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.913.96safe0.89–3.210.82–3.001.71–6.21safer0.59–3.510.53–3.291.12–6.80
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.863.42safe0.51–2.610.73–2.991.25–5.60safer0.25–2.880.44–3.280.69–6.16
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.356.02safe1.23–4.101.80–4.913.02–9.01safer0.84–4.491.37–5.332.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 1.08–3.01 0.83–3.26 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.24 | 3.20 1.38–5.02 0.90–5.50 | 58% 21% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.39 3.52–7.25 3.03–7.74 | 4.01 2.27–5.75 1.80–6.22 | 9.39 5.79–13.00 4.83–13.95 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 15.29 11.37–19.22 10.28–20.31 | 9.51 5.95–13.08 4.99–14.04 | 24.81 17.32–32.29 15.27–34.35 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 9.59 6.65–12.53 5.82–13.36 | 6.23 3.55–8.91 2.82–9.65 | 15.82 10.20–21.45 8.63–23.01 | 76% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.44 1.56–5.32 1.01–5.86 | 3.34 1.69–4.99 1.19–5.49 | 6.78 3.24–10.31 2.21–11.35 | 44% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 5.77 3.56–7.98 2.98–8.56 | 3.74 1.74–5.74 1.21–6.28 | 9.51 5.30–13.73 4.19–14.83 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 53.08 46.29–59.88 44.62–61.54 | 46.07 39.29–52.86 37.62–54.53 | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 441 373–508 355–526 | 352 285–418 268–436 | 792 659–926 623–962 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.89 70.86–78.92 69.57–80.21 | 68.44 64.12–72.76 62.81–74.07 | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.54–15.21 8.78–15.97 | 11.18 8.24–14.13 7.49–14.87 | 23.56 17.77–29.34 16.27–30.84 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.59–3.51 | 1.91 0.82–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 3.96 1.71–6.21 1.12–6.80 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.25–2.88 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.42 1.25–5.60 0.69–6.16 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 3.35 1.80–4.91 1.37–5.33 | 6.02 3.02–9.01 2.21–9.82 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.