FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.252.72safe0.50–2.440.40–2.110.90–4.54safer0.25–2.690.17–2.330.42–5.02
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.478.94safe2.60–6.332.73–6.225.33–12.54safer2.11–6.822.27–6.684.38–13.50
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2710.4822.76safe8.35–16.206.92–14.0515.27–30.25safer7.26–17.295.96–15.0113.22–32.30
Shots in box
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction7.776.5714.34safe4.83–10.723.89–9.258.72–19.97safer4.00–11.553.15–9.997.15–21.53
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.193.126.31safe1.30–5.071.47–4.782.77–9.85safer0.76–5.610.98–5.271.74–10.88
Corners
49%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.409.26safe2.65–7.072.40–6.405.05–13.47safer2.07–7.651.87–6.933.94–14.58
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction50.1151.64safe43.32–56.9044.86–58.43safer41.65–58.5743.18–60.10
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction391403793safe324–458336–469660–927safer306–476319–487624–963
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction71.4568.80safe67.42–75.4864.47–73.12safer66.13–76.7763.16–74.43
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9612.7025.66safe10.12–15.799.76–15.6419.87–31.44safer9.36–16.559.01–16.3918.37–32.94
Offsides
41%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.953.95safe0.84–3.160.85–3.041.69–6.20safer0.54–3.460.57–3.331.10–6.79
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.733.38safe0.60–2.700.60–2.861.21–5.56safer0.34–2.970.31–3.150.65–6.12
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.186.13safe1.51–4.381.63–4.743.13–9.12safer1.12–4.771.20–5.162.32–9.93
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.25 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.33 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.33 2.11–6.82 | 4.47 2.73–6.22 2.27–6.68 | 8.94 5.33–12.54 4.38–13.50 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 12.27 8.35–16.20 7.26–17.29 | 10.48 6.92–14.05 5.96–15.01 | 22.76 15.27–30.25 13.22–32.30 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 7.77 4.83–10.72 4.00–11.55 | 6.57 3.89–9.25 3.15–9.99 | 14.34 8.72–19.97 7.15–21.53 | 57% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.19 1.30–5.07 0.76–5.61 | 3.12 1.47–4.78 0.98–5.27 | 6.31 2.77–9.85 1.74–10.88 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.65–7.07 2.07–7.65 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.87–6.93 | 9.26 5.05–13.47 3.94–14.58 | 49% 13% 37% |
| Possession % | 50.11 43.32–56.90 41.65–58.57 | 51.64 44.86–58.43 43.18–60.10 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 391 324–458 306–476 | 403 336–469 319–487 | 793 660–927 624–963 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.45 67.42–75.48 66.13–76.77 | 68.80 64.47–73.12 63.16–74.43 | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 12.96 10.12–15.79 9.36–16.55 | 12.70 9.76–15.64 9.01–16.39 | 25.66 19.87–31.44 18.37–32.94 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.54–3.46 | 1.95 0.85–3.04 0.57–3.33 | 3.95 1.69–6.20 1.10–6.79 | 41% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.34–2.97 | 1.73 0.60–2.86 0.31–3.15 | 3.38 1.21–5.56 0.65–6.12 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 3.18 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 6.13 3.13–9.12 2.32–9.93 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.