FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.202.78safe0.61–2.540.35–2.060.96–4.60safer0.36–2.790.12–2.290.48–5.08
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.494.178.65safe2.62–6.352.42–5.915.05–12.26safer2.13–6.841.96–6.374.09–13.21
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2010.2822.49safe8.28–16.136.72–13.8515.00–29.98safer7.19–17.225.76–14.8112.95–32.03
Shots in box
58%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.146.8214.96safe5.20–11.084.14–9.509.34–20.58safer4.37–11.913.40–10.247.77–22.15
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.826.09safe1.39–5.151.17–4.482.56–9.63safer0.84–5.690.68–4.971.52–10.66
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.944.549.48safe2.73–7.152.54–6.545.26–13.69safer2.15–7.732.01–7.074.16–14.80
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction50.9450.77safe44.15–57.7343.98–57.55safer42.48–59.4042.31–59.23
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction378382760safe311–446315–448626–894safer293–464298–466591–929
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction70.9569.32safe66.92–74.9865.00–73.65safer65.62–76.2763.69–74.96
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5112.7125.22safe9.67–15.359.76–15.6519.44–31.00safer8.92–16.119.01–16.4017.93–32.50
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.913.84safe0.77–3.090.82–3.001.58–6.09safer0.47–3.390.53–3.290.99–6.68
Yellow cards
37%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.793.51safe0.67–2.770.66–2.921.33–5.69safer0.40–3.030.37–3.210.77–6.24
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
39%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.146.13safe1.55–4.431.59–4.703.14–9.12safer1.17–4.811.16–5.122.33–9.94
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.61–2.54 0.36–2.79 | 1.20 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.62–6.35 2.13–6.84 | 4.17 2.42–5.91 1.96–6.37 | 8.65 5.05–12.26 4.09–13.21 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 12.20 8.28–16.13 7.19–17.22 | 10.28 6.72–13.85 5.76–14.81 | 22.49 15.00–29.98 12.95–32.03 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.14 5.20–11.08 4.37–11.91 | 6.82 4.14–9.50 3.40–10.24 | 14.96 9.34–20.58 7.77–22.15 | 58% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.39–5.15 0.84–5.69 | 2.82 1.17–4.48 0.68–4.97 | 6.09 2.56–9.63 1.52–10.66 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 4.94 2.73–7.15 2.15–7.73 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.01–7.07 | 9.48 5.26–13.69 4.16–14.80 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.94 44.15–57.73 42.48–59.40 | 50.77 43.98–57.55 42.31–59.23 | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 378 311–446 293–464 | 382 315–448 298–466 | 760 626–894 591–929 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.95 66.92–74.98 65.62–76.27 | 69.32 65.00–73.65 63.69–74.96 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 12.51 9.67–15.35 8.92–16.11 | 12.71 9.76–15.65 9.01–16.40 | 25.22 19.44–31.00 17.93–32.50 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 1.91 0.82–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 3.84 1.58–6.09 0.99–6.68 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.40–3.03 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.51 1.33–5.69 0.77–6.24 | 37% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.55–4.43 1.17–4.81 | 3.14 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.12 | 6.13 3.14–9.12 2.33–9.94 | 39% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+