FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.240.813.06safe1.28–3.210.00–1.671.23–4.88safer1.03–3.460.00–1.890.75–5.36
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction5.902.508.40safe4.04–7.760.76–4.244.79–12.00safer3.55–8.250.29–4.713.84–12.96
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction16.468.5024.96safe12.53–20.384.94–12.0617.47–32.44safer11.44–21.473.98–13.0215.42–34.49
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction10.214.7714.97safe7.27–13.152.09–7.459.35–20.60safer6.44–13.981.35–8.197.78–22.16
Blocked shots
66%
13%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.112.526.63safe2.23–5.990.87–4.173.10–10.17safer1.69–6.540.38–4.672.06–11.21
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.372.769.13safe4.15–8.580.76–4.764.92–13.34safer3.58–9.150.23–5.303.81–14.45
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction57.5143.21safe50.72–64.3036.43–50.00safer49.05–65.9734.76–51.67
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction457341798safe389–524275–408664–931safer371–542257–425628–967
Pass accuracy %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction73.9267.78safe69.89–77.9563.46–72.10safer68.60–79.2462.15–73.41
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1612.9225.07safe9.32–14.999.97–15.8619.29–30.85safer8.56–15.759.22–16.6117.78–32.36
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.843.72safe0.73–3.050.74–2.931.47–5.98safer0.42–3.350.46–3.220.88–6.57
Yellow cards
32%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.843.36safe0.47–2.570.71–2.971.19–5.54safer0.21–2.840.42–3.260.63–6.10
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.80
GK saves
19%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.013.525.52safe0.57–3.441.96–5.072.53–8.52safer0.18–3.831.54–5.501.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.24 1.28–3.21 1.03–3.46 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.89 | 3.06 1.23–4.88 0.75–5.36 | 70% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.90 4.04–7.76 3.55–8.25 | 2.50 0.76–4.24 0.29–4.71 | 8.40 4.79–12.00 3.84–12.96 | 84% |
| Total shots | 16.46 12.53–20.38 11.44–21.47 | 8.50 4.94–12.06 3.98–13.02 | 24.96 17.47–32.44 15.42–34.49 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 10.21 7.27–13.15 6.44–13.98 | 4.77 2.09–7.45 1.35–8.19 | 14.97 9.35–20.60 7.78–22.16 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 2.23–5.99 1.69–6.54 | 2.52 0.87–4.17 0.38–4.67 | 6.63 3.10–10.17 2.06–11.21 | 66% 13% 20% |
| Corners | 6.37 4.15–8.58 3.58–9.15 | 2.76 0.76–4.76 0.23–5.30 | 9.13 4.92–13.34 3.81–14.45 | 85% |
| Possession % | 57.51 50.72–64.30 49.05–65.97 | 43.21 36.43–50.00 34.76–51.67 | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 457 389–524 371–542 | 341 275–408 257–425 | 798 664–931 628–967 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.92 69.89–77.95 68.60–79.24 | 67.78 63.46–72.10 62.15–73.41 | — | 77% 20% |
| Fouls | 12.16 9.32–14.99 8.56–15.75 | 12.92 9.97–15.86 9.22–16.61 | 25.07 19.29–30.85 17.78–32.36 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.42–3.35 | 1.84 0.74–2.93 0.46–3.22 | 3.72 1.47–5.98 0.88–6.57 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.57 0.21–2.84 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.36 1.19–5.54 0.63–6.10 | 32% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.01 0.57–3.44 0.18–3.83 | 3.52 1.96–5.07 1.54–5.50 | 5.52 2.53–8.52 1.72–9.33 | 19% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.