FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.252.96safe0.75–2.690.39–2.101.14–4.79safer0.50–2.940.16–2.330.66–5.27
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.294.308.59safe2.43–6.152.56–6.044.99–12.20safer1.94–6.642.09–6.514.03–13.15
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8911.5424.44safe8.97–16.827.98–15.1116.95–31.92safer7.88–17.917.02–16.0714.90–33.97
Shots in box
61%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction7.756.1613.91safe4.81–10.693.48–8.848.29–19.54safer3.98–11.522.75–9.586.72–21.10
Blocked shots
45%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.393.236.62safe1.51–5.271.58–4.883.08–10.15safer0.96–5.821.08–5.372.05–11.19
Corners
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.813.918.72safe2.60–7.031.91–5.914.51–12.93safer2.02–7.601.38–6.443.40–14.04
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.2249.42safe44.43–58.0142.64–56.21safer42.76–59.6840.97–57.88
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction397339736safe330–464272–405602–869safer311–482255–423566–905
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction68.7170.58safe64.68–72.7466.25–74.90safer63.39–74.0364.94–76.21
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0511.9323.98safe9.21–14.898.98–14.8718.19–29.76safer8.46–15.658.23–15.6216.69–31.26
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.883.82safe0.78–3.100.79–2.971.57–6.07safer0.48–3.400.50–3.260.98–6.66
Yellow cards
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.683.06safe0.33–2.420.55–2.810.88–5.24safer0.06–2.690.26–3.100.32–5.79
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
37%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.035.74safe1.28–4.151.47–4.582.75–8.73safer0.89–4.541.04–5.011.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 0.75–2.69 0.50–2.94 | 1.25 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 2.96 1.14–4.79 0.66–5.27 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.43–6.15 1.94–6.64 | 4.30 2.56–6.04 2.09–6.51 | 8.59 4.99–12.20 4.03–13.15 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 12.89 8.97–16.82 7.88–17.91 | 11.54 7.98–15.11 7.02–16.07 | 24.44 16.95–31.92 14.90–33.97 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 7.75 4.81–10.69 3.98–11.52 | 6.16 3.48–8.84 2.75–9.58 | 13.91 8.29–19.54 6.72–21.10 | 61% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.51–5.27 0.96–5.82 | 3.23 1.58–4.88 1.08–5.37 | 6.62 3.08–10.15 2.05–11.19 | 45% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.60–7.03 2.02–7.60 | 3.91 1.91–5.91 1.38–6.44 | 8.72 4.51–12.93 3.40–14.04 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Possession % | 51.22 44.43–58.01 42.76–59.68 | 49.42 42.64–56.21 40.97–57.88 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 397 330–464 311–482 | 339 272–405 255–423 | 736 602–869 566–905 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.71 64.68–72.74 63.39–74.03 | 70.58 66.25–74.90 64.94–76.21 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 12.05 9.21–14.89 8.46–15.65 | 11.93 8.98–14.87 8.23–15.62 | 23.98 18.19–29.76 16.69–31.26 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.48–3.40 | 1.88 0.79–2.97 0.50–3.26 | 3.82 1.57–6.07 0.98–6.66 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 0.33–2.42 0.06–2.69 | 1.68 0.55–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.06 0.88–5.24 0.32–5.79 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 3.03 1.47–4.58 1.04–5.01 | 5.74 2.75–8.73 1.94–9.55 | 37% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+