FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.363.06safe0.73–2.670.50–2.211.24–4.88safer0.48–2.920.27–2.440.76–5.36
Shots on target
50%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.208.93safe2.87–6.592.46–5.945.33–12.54safer2.38–7.081.99–6.414.37–13.49
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0112.4525.46safe9.08–16.938.89–16.0117.97–32.95safer7.99–18.027.93–16.9715.92–35.00
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction7.796.7214.51safe4.85–10.734.04–9.418.89–20.14safer4.02–11.563.31–10.147.32–21.70
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.263.146.40safe1.38–5.141.48–4.792.86–9.93safer0.84–5.690.99–5.281.83–10.97
Corners
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.823.888.69safe2.60–7.031.88–5.884.48–12.91safer2.03–7.601.34–6.413.37–14.01
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.3550.35safe42.56–56.1443.56–57.13safer40.89–57.8141.89–58.80
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction400416816safe333–467349–482682–949safer314–485332–500646–985
Pass accuracy %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction70.7173.95safe66.68–74.7469.63–78.28safer65.38–76.0368.32–79.59
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7611.5523.31safe8.93–14.608.60–14.4917.53–29.09safer8.17–15.367.85–15.2416.02–30.60
Offsides
42%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.843.83safe0.83–3.150.75–2.931.57–6.08safer0.53–3.450.46–3.220.99–6.67
Yellow cards
32%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.693.12safe0.38–2.480.56–2.820.94–5.30safer0.11–2.740.27–3.110.38–5.86
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.106.04safe1.50–4.371.55–4.663.05–9.03safer1.11–4.761.12–5.082.24–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.67 0.48–2.92 | 1.36 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.44 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 46% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.73 2.87–6.59 2.38–7.08 | 4.20 2.46–5.94 1.99–6.41 | 8.93 5.33–12.54 4.37–13.49 | 50% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.01 9.08–16.93 7.99–18.02 | 12.45 8.89–16.01 7.93–16.97 | 25.46 17.97–32.95 15.92–35.00 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.79 4.85–10.73 4.02–11.56 | 6.72 4.04–9.41 3.31–10.14 | 14.51 8.89–20.14 7.32–21.70 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.38–5.14 0.84–5.69 | 3.14 1.48–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 6.40 2.86–9.93 1.83–10.97 | 44% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 4.82 2.60–7.03 2.03–7.60 | 3.88 1.88–5.88 1.34–6.41 | 8.69 4.48–12.91 3.37–14.01 | 56% 13% 31% |
| Possession % | 49.35 42.56–56.14 40.89–57.81 | 50.35 43.56–57.13 41.89–58.80 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 400 333–467 314–485 | 416 349–482 332–500 | 816 682–949 646–985 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.71 66.68–74.74 65.38–76.03 | 73.95 69.63–78.28 68.32–79.59 | — | 31% 64% |
| Fouls | 11.76 8.93–14.60 8.17–15.36 | 11.55 8.60–14.49 7.85–15.24 | 23.31 17.53–29.09 16.02–30.60 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.45 | 1.84 0.75–2.93 0.46–3.22 | 3.83 1.57–6.08 0.99–6.67 | 42% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.38–2.48 0.11–2.74 | 1.69 0.56–2.82 0.27–3.11 | 3.12 0.94–5.30 0.38–5.86 | 32% 24% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 3.10 1.55–4.66 1.12–5.08 | 6.04 3.05–9.03 2.24–9.85 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.