FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.362.89safe0.56–2.500.51–2.221.07–4.72safer0.31–2.750.28–2.450.59–5.20
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.988.33safe2.49–6.222.24–5.724.73–11.94safer2.00–6.711.77–6.193.77–12.89
Total shots
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1211.0922.20safe7.19–15.047.52–14.6514.72–29.69safer6.10–16.136.56–15.6112.66–31.74
Shots in box
45%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction7.347.2714.61safe4.40–10.284.59–9.958.99–20.24safer3.57–11.113.85–10.697.42–21.80
Blocked shots
39%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.823.005.82safe0.94–4.701.35–4.662.29–9.36safer0.39–5.240.86–5.151.25–10.39
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.194.119.30safe2.98–7.402.11–6.115.09–13.52safer2.40–7.981.58–6.653.98–14.62
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction51.0349.40safe44.24–57.8242.61–56.18safer42.57–59.4940.94–57.85
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction421388810safe354–489322–455676–943safer336–507304–472640–979
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction71.9871.55safe67.95–76.0167.23–75.87safer66.66–77.3065.92–77.18
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3111.6123.92safe9.47–15.148.67–14.5618.14–29.70safer8.71–15.907.92–15.3116.63–31.21
Offsides
42%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.813.78safe0.81–3.130.72–2.901.52–6.03safer0.51–3.430.43–3.190.94–6.62
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.763.35safe0.54–2.640.63–2.891.17–5.53safer0.27–2.900.34–3.180.61–6.08
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
39%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.025.85safe1.40–4.271.46–4.572.86–8.85safer1.01–4.661.04–5.002.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.36 0.51–2.22 0.28–2.45 | 2.89 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.20 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.49–6.22 2.00–6.71 | 3.98 2.24–5.72 1.77–6.19 | 8.33 4.73–11.94 3.77–12.89 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 11.12 7.19–15.04 6.10–16.13 | 11.09 7.52–14.65 6.56–15.61 | 22.20 14.72–29.69 12.66–31.74 | 46% 45% |
| Shots in box | 7.34 4.40–10.28 3.57–11.11 | 7.27 4.59–9.95 3.85–10.69 | 14.61 8.99–20.24 7.42–21.80 | 45% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 2.82 0.94–4.70 0.39–5.24 | 3.00 1.35–4.66 0.86–5.15 | 5.82 2.29–9.36 1.25–10.39 | 39% 17% 45% |
| Corners | 5.19 2.98–7.40 2.40–7.98 | 4.11 2.11–6.11 1.58–6.65 | 9.30 5.09–13.52 3.98–14.62 | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.03 44.24–57.82 42.57–59.49 | 49.40 42.61–56.18 40.94–57.85 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 421 354–489 336–507 | 388 322–455 304–472 | 810 676–943 640–979 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.98 67.95–76.01 66.66–77.30 | 71.55 67.23–75.87 65.92–77.18 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 12.31 9.47–15.14 8.71–15.90 | 11.61 8.67–14.56 7.92–15.31 | 23.92 18.14–29.70 16.63–31.21 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.81 0.72–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.78 1.52–6.03 0.94–6.62 | 42% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.27–2.90 | 1.76 0.63–2.89 0.34–3.18 | 3.35 1.17–5.53 0.61–6.08 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.04–5.00 | 5.85 2.86–8.85 2.05–9.66 | 39% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+