FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.192.78safe0.62–2.560.34–2.040.96–4.60safer0.37–2.810.11–2.270.48–5.08
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.893.888.77safe3.03–6.752.14–5.625.17–12.38safer2.54–7.241.67–6.094.21–13.33
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2310.5625.79safe11.31–19.166.99–14.1218.30–33.28safer10.22–20.256.04–15.0816.25–35.33
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.326.5115.84safe6.38–12.273.83–9.1910.21–21.46safer5.55–13.093.10–9.938.65–23.03
Blocked shots
48%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.106.56safe1.57–5.341.45–4.763.02–10.09safer1.03–5.880.96–5.251.99–11.13
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.624.219.83safe3.41–7.832.21–6.215.61–14.04safer2.83–8.411.67–6.744.51–15.15
Possession %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction53.0046.99safe46.21–59.7940.20–53.77safer44.54–61.4638.53–55.44
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction438318756safe371–505252–385622–890safer353–523234–402587–925
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction73.1368.86safe69.10–77.1664.54–73.19safer67.81–78.4563.23–74.50
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1211.7523.87safe9.28–14.968.81–14.7018.09–29.65safer8.52–15.718.06–15.4516.58–31.16
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.003.96safe0.80–3.120.91–3.091.71–6.21safer0.50–3.420.62–3.381.12–6.80
Yellow cards
34%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.693.19safe0.45–2.550.56–2.811.01–5.37safer0.19–2.820.27–3.110.45–5.92
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.286.06safe1.35–4.221.72–4.843.07–9.06safer0.96–4.611.30–5.262.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.62–2.56 0.37–2.81 | 1.19 0.34–2.04 0.11–2.27 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 47% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.89 3.03–6.75 2.54–7.24 | 3.88 2.14–5.62 1.67–6.09 | 8.77 5.17–12.38 4.21–13.33 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.23 11.31–19.16 10.22–20.25 | 10.56 6.99–14.12 6.04–15.08 | 25.79 18.30–33.28 16.25–35.33 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.32 6.38–12.27 5.55–13.09 | 6.51 3.83–9.19 3.10–9.93 | 15.84 10.21–21.46 8.65–23.03 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.57–5.34 1.03–5.88 | 3.10 1.45–4.76 0.96–5.25 | 6.56 3.02–10.09 1.99–11.13 | 48% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.41–7.83 2.83–8.41 | 4.21 2.21–6.21 1.67–6.74 | 9.83 5.61–14.04 4.51–15.15 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 53.00 46.21–59.79 44.54–61.46 | 46.99 40.20–53.77 38.53–55.44 | — | 62% 34% |
| Passes | 438 371–505 353–523 | 318 252–385 234–402 | 756 622–890 587–925 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.13 69.10–77.16 67.81–78.45 | 68.86 64.54–73.19 63.23–74.50 | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 12.12 9.28–14.96 8.52–15.71 | 11.75 8.81–14.70 8.06–15.45 | 23.87 18.09–29.65 16.58–31.16 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 2.00 0.91–3.09 0.62–3.38 | 3.96 1.71–6.21 1.12–6.80 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 1.69 0.56–2.81 0.27–3.11 | 3.19 1.01–5.37 0.45–5.92 | 34% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 3.28 1.72–4.84 1.30–5.26 | 6.06 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.