FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.793.25safe0.50–2.430.93–2.641.43–5.08safer0.25–2.690.71–2.870.95–5.56
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.874.938.80safe2.01–5.733.19–6.675.20–12.41safer1.52–6.222.72–7.144.24–13.36
Total shots
14%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4115.2825.70safe6.49–14.3411.72–18.8518.21–33.18safer5.39–15.4310.76–19.8116.16–35.23
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction6.398.1414.53safe3.45–9.335.45–10.828.90–20.15safer2.62–10.164.72–11.557.34–21.72
Blocked shots
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.125.96safe0.96–4.721.46–4.772.42–9.49safer0.42–5.270.97–5.261.39–10.53
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.284.999.27safe2.07–6.492.99–6.995.06–13.48safer1.49–7.072.46–7.533.95–14.59
Possession %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction44.1257.47safe37.33–50.9150.69–64.26safer35.66–52.5849.02–65.93
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction331446776safe263–398379–512643–910safer245–416362–530607–946
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction61.5872.15safe57.55–65.6167.83–76.48safer56.26–66.9066.52–77.78
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7411.8224.56safe9.90–15.588.88–14.7718.78–30.34safer9.15–16.338.13–15.5117.27–31.85
Offsides
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.074.00safe0.76–3.080.98–3.171.74–6.25safer0.46–3.390.69–3.451.15–6.84
Yellow cards
39%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.573.17safe0.55–2.640.44–2.700.99–5.34safer0.28–2.910.15–2.990.43–5.90
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
47%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.785.87safe1.66–4.531.22–4.332.88–8.86safer1.27–4.920.80–4.762.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.43 0.25–2.69 | 1.79 0.93–2.64 0.71–2.87 | 3.25 1.43–5.08 0.95–5.56 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.87 2.01–5.73 1.52–6.22 | 4.93 3.19–6.67 2.72–7.14 | 8.80 5.20–12.41 4.24–13.36 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 10.41 6.49–14.34 5.39–15.43 | 15.28 11.72–18.85 10.76–19.81 | 25.70 18.21–33.18 16.16–35.23 | 14% 81% |
| Shots in box | 6.39 3.45–9.33 2.62–10.16 | 8.14 5.45–10.82 4.72–11.55 | 14.53 8.90–20.15 7.34–21.72 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 2.84 0.96–4.72 0.42–5.27 | 3.12 1.46–4.77 0.97–5.26 | 5.96 2.42–9.49 1.39–10.53 | 37% 17% 46% |
| Corners | 4.28 2.07–6.49 1.49–7.07 | 4.99 2.99–6.99 2.46–7.53 | 9.27 5.06–13.48 3.95–14.59 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 44.12 37.33–50.91 35.66–52.58 | 57.47 50.69–64.26 49.02–65.93 | — | 20% 77% |
| Passes | 331 263–398 245–416 | 446 379–512 362–530 | 776 643–910 607–946 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.58 57.55–65.61 56.26–66.90 | 72.15 67.83–76.48 66.52–77.78 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 12.74 9.90–15.58 9.15–16.33 | 11.82 8.88–14.77 8.13–15.51 | 24.56 18.78–30.34 17.27–31.85 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.46–3.39 | 2.07 0.98–3.17 0.69–3.45 | 4.00 1.74–6.25 1.15–6.84 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 1.57 0.44–2.70 0.15–2.99 | 3.17 0.99–5.34 0.43–5.90 | 39% 24% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.66–4.53 1.27–4.92 | 2.78 1.22–4.33 0.80–4.76 | 5.87 2.88–8.86 2.07–9.68 | 47% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+