FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.282.79safe0.55–2.480.42–2.130.97–4.62safer0.30–2.740.19–2.360.49–5.10
Shots on target
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.939.89safe3.10–6.823.19–6.676.28–13.49safer2.61–7.312.72–7.145.33–14.45
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.539.6921.22safe7.60–15.456.13–13.2513.73–28.71safer6.51–16.545.17–14.2111.68–30.76
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.488.0416.52safe5.54–11.425.36–10.7210.90–22.14safer4.71–12.254.62–11.469.33–23.71
Blocked shots
49%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.162.725.88safe1.28–5.051.06–4.372.35–9.42safer0.74–5.590.57–4.861.31–10.45
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.7710.22safe3.23–7.662.77–6.776.01–14.43safer2.66–8.232.24–7.314.90–15.54
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction51.5648.14safe44.77–58.3541.36–54.93safer43.10–60.0239.69–56.60
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction384382766safe317–451315–448632–899safer298–469298–466596–935
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction70.5068.19safe66.47–74.5363.87–72.52safer65.18–75.8262.56–73.83
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9912.6824.67safe9.16–14.839.74–15.6318.89–30.46safer8.40–15.598.99–16.3717.39–31.96
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.044.01safe0.81–3.130.95–3.131.76–6.26safer0.51–3.430.66–3.421.17–6.85
Yellow cards
34%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.833.44safe0.56–2.660.70–2.961.26–5.62safer0.30–2.930.41–3.250.70–6.18
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.233.266.49safe1.79–4.671.70–4.813.50–9.48safer1.41–5.051.28–5.242.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.48 0.30–2.74 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.79 0.97–4.62 0.49–5.10 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.10–6.82 2.61–7.31 | 4.93 3.19–6.67 2.72–7.14 | 9.89 6.28–13.49 5.33–14.45 | 44% 43% |
| Total shots | 11.53 7.60–15.45 6.51–16.54 | 9.69 6.13–13.25 5.17–14.21 | 21.22 13.73–28.71 11.68–30.76 | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.48 5.54–11.42 4.71–12.25 | 8.04 5.36–10.72 4.62–11.46 | 16.52 10.90–22.14 9.33–23.71 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.16 1.28–5.05 0.74–5.59 | 2.72 1.06–4.37 0.57–4.86 | 5.88 2.35–9.42 1.31–10.45 | 49% 17% 35% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.23–7.66 2.66–8.23 | 4.77 2.77–6.77 2.24–7.31 | 10.22 6.01–14.43 4.90–15.54 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 51.56 44.77–58.35 43.10–60.02 | 48.14 41.36–54.93 39.69–56.60 | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 384 317–451 298–469 | 382 315–448 298–466 | 766 632–899 596–935 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.50 66.47–74.53 65.18–75.82 | 68.19 63.87–72.52 62.56–73.83 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.99 9.16–14.83 8.40–15.59 | 12.68 9.74–15.63 8.99–16.37 | 24.67 18.89–30.46 17.39–31.96 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 2.04 0.95–3.13 0.66–3.42 | 4.01 1.76–6.26 1.17–6.85 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.44 1.26–5.62 0.70–6.18 | 34% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.23 1.79–4.67 1.41–5.05 | 3.26 1.70–4.81 1.28–5.24 | 6.49 3.50–9.48 2.68–10.29 | 42% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.