FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.232.99safe0.80–2.730.37–2.081.17–4.81safer0.54–2.980.14–2.310.69–5.29
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.974.049.01safe3.11–6.832.30–5.785.41–12.62safer2.62–7.321.83–6.254.45–13.57
Total shots
68%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7111.8626.58safe10.79–18.648.30–15.4319.09–34.06safer9.70–19.737.34–16.3917.04–36.11
Shots in box
70%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction8.766.1914.95safe5.82–11.703.51–8.879.33–20.58safer4.99–12.532.77–9.617.76–22.14
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.663.166.82safe1.77–5.541.51–4.823.29–10.36safer1.23–6.081.02–5.312.25–11.39
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.423.899.30safe3.21–7.631.89–5.895.09–13.52safer2.63–8.211.35–6.423.98–14.63
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.7248.04safe44.93–58.5141.26–54.83safer43.26–60.1839.59–56.50
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction417363780safe350–484297–430647–914safer331–502279–447611–950
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction71.1271.15safe67.09–75.1566.83–75.48safer65.79–76.4465.52–76.79
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1611.6723.84safe9.33–15.008.73–14.6218.05–29.62safer8.57–15.767.98–15.3716.55–31.12
Offsides
44%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.101.904.00safe0.94–3.260.81–2.991.75–6.26safer0.64–3.560.52–3.281.16–6.85
Yellow cards
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.623.15safe0.48–2.580.49–2.750.97–5.32safer0.22–2.850.20–3.040.41–5.88
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.446.24safe1.36–4.241.88–4.993.24–9.23safer0.98–4.621.46–5.422.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.80–2.73 0.54–2.98 | 1.23 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.99 1.17–4.81 0.69–5.29 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.97 3.11–6.83 2.62–7.32 | 4.04 2.30–5.78 1.83–6.25 | 9.01 5.41–12.62 4.45–13.57 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.71 10.79–18.64 9.70–19.73 | 11.86 8.30–15.43 7.34–16.39 | 26.58 19.09–34.06 17.04–36.11 | 68% 26% |
| Shots in box | 8.76 5.82–11.70 4.99–12.53 | 6.19 3.51–8.87 2.77–9.61 | 14.95 9.33–20.58 7.76–22.14 | 70% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 1.77–5.54 1.23–6.08 | 3.16 1.51–4.82 1.02–5.31 | 6.82 3.29–10.36 2.25–11.39 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.21–7.63 2.63–8.21 | 3.89 1.89–5.89 1.35–6.42 | 9.30 5.09–13.52 3.98–14.63 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 51.72 44.93–58.51 43.26–60.18 | 48.04 41.26–54.83 39.59–56.50 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 417 350–484 331–502 | 363 297–430 279–447 | 780 647–914 611–950 | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.12 67.09–75.15 65.79–76.44 | 71.15 66.83–75.48 65.52–76.79 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 12.16 9.33–15.00 8.57–15.76 | 11.67 8.73–14.62 7.98–15.37 | 23.84 18.05–29.62 16.55–31.12 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.10 0.94–3.26 0.64–3.56 | 1.90 0.81–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 4.00 1.75–6.26 1.16–6.85 | 44% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.22–2.85 | 1.62 0.49–2.75 0.20–3.04 | 3.15 0.97–5.32 0.41–5.88 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.36–4.24 0.98–4.62 | 3.44 1.88–4.99 1.46–5.42 | 6.24 3.24–9.23 2.43–10.04 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+