FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.432.87safe0.47–2.400.58–2.291.05–4.69safer0.22–2.660.35–2.520.57–5.17
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.653.948.59safe2.79–6.522.20–5.684.99–12.20safer2.30–7.001.73–6.154.03–13.15
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8613.6324.49safe6.93–14.7810.07–17.2017.00–31.98safer5.84–15.879.11–18.1614.95–34.03
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction7.007.7514.75safe4.06–9.945.07–10.439.13–20.37safer3.23–10.774.33–11.177.56–21.94
Blocked shots
48%
18%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.465.32safe0.97–4.740.81–4.121.78–8.85safer0.43–5.280.32–4.610.75–9.89
Corners
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.198.94safe2.53–6.962.19–6.194.72–13.15safer1.96–7.531.66–6.723.62–14.26
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.5648.50safe43.77–57.3541.72–55.29safer42.10–59.0240.05–56.96
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction397382779safe330–464315–448645–912safer312–483298–466609–948
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction66.4569.40safe62.42–70.4865.07–73.72safer61.12–71.7763.76–75.03
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8712.2725.14safe10.03–15.709.33–15.2219.35–30.92safer9.27–16.468.58–15.9617.85–32.42
Offsides
36%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.124.05safe0.77–3.091.03–3.211.80–6.31safer0.47–3.400.74–3.501.21–6.90
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.763.40safe0.59–2.690.63–2.891.22–5.57safer0.32–2.950.34–3.180.66–6.13
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.100.24safe0.00–0.300.00–0.290.00–0.59safer0.00–0.450.00–0.420.00–0.87
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.095.95safe1.42–4.291.54–4.652.96–8.94safer1.03–4.681.11–5.072.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.40 0.22–2.66 | 1.43 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.52 | 2.87 1.05–4.69 0.57–5.17 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.65 2.79–6.52 2.30–7.00 | 3.94 2.20–5.68 1.73–6.15 | 8.59 4.99–12.20 4.03–13.15 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 10.86 6.93–14.78 5.84–15.87 | 13.63 10.07–17.20 9.11–18.16 | 24.49 17.00–31.98 14.95–34.03 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 7.00 4.06–9.94 3.23–10.77 | 7.75 5.07–10.43 4.33–11.17 | 14.75 9.13–20.37 7.56–21.94 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 2.85 0.97–4.74 0.43–5.28 | 2.46 0.81–4.12 0.32–4.61 | 5.32 1.78–8.85 0.75–9.89 | 48% 18% 35% |
| Corners | 4.75 2.53–6.96 1.96–7.53 | 4.19 2.19–6.19 1.66–6.72 | 8.94 4.72–13.15 3.62–14.26 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 50.56 43.77–57.35 42.10–59.02 | 48.50 41.72–55.29 40.05–56.96 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 397 330–464 312–483 | 382 315–448 298–466 | 779 645–912 609–948 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.45 62.42–70.48 61.12–71.77 | 69.40 65.07–73.72 63.76–75.03 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 12.87 10.03–15.70 9.27–16.46 | 12.27 9.33–15.22 8.58–15.96 | 25.14 19.35–30.92 17.85–32.42 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.40 | 2.12 1.03–3.21 0.74–3.50 | 4.05 1.80–6.31 1.21–6.90 | 36% 20% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.95 | 1.76 0.63–2.89 0.34–3.18 | 3.40 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.13 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.09 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.07 | 5.95 2.96–8.94 2.14–9.75 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.