FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.332.74safe0.44–2.380.47–2.180.92–4.56safer0.19–2.630.25–2.410.44–5.04
Shots on target
41%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.364.568.92safe2.50–6.232.81–6.305.31–12.52safer2.01–6.722.35–6.764.36–13.48
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8911.0523.94safe8.96–16.817.49–14.6116.45–31.43safer7.87–17.906.53–15.5714.40–33.48
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.127.5515.68safe5.18–11.064.87–10.2410.05–21.30safer4.35–11.894.14–10.978.49–22.87
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.346.55safe1.32–5.081.69–5.003.01–10.08safer0.78–5.631.20–5.491.97–11.12
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.689.65safe2.75–7.172.68–6.685.43–13.86safer2.17–7.752.15–7.224.32–14.97
Possession %
51%
45%
homeawayprediction50.6449.38safe43.85–57.4342.60–56.17safer42.18–59.1040.92–57.84
Passes
65%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction417372789safe350–484305–438655–923safer332–503288–456620–958
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction75.1372.07safe71.10–79.1667.75–76.40safer69.81–80.4566.44–77.70
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9813.1126.08safe10.14–15.8110.16–16.0520.30–31.86safer9.38–16.579.41–16.8018.80–33.37
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.074.05safe0.82–3.140.98–3.171.80–6.31safer0.52–3.440.69–3.451.21–6.90
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.843.48safe0.59–2.690.72–2.971.30–5.66safer0.32–2.950.42–3.260.75–6.22
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.166.34safe1.75–4.621.60–4.723.35–9.34safer1.36–5.011.18–5.142.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.33 0.47–2.18 0.25–2.41 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.44–5.04 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.50–6.23 2.01–6.72 | 4.56 2.81–6.30 2.35–6.76 | 8.92 5.31–12.52 4.36–13.48 | 41% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.89 8.96–16.81 7.87–17.90 | 11.05 7.49–14.61 6.53–15.57 | 23.94 16.45–31.43 14.40–33.48 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.12 5.18–11.06 4.35–11.89 | 7.55 4.87–10.24 4.14–10.97 | 15.68 10.05–21.30 8.49–22.87 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.32–5.08 0.78–5.63 | 3.34 1.69–5.00 1.20–5.49 | 6.55 3.01–10.08 1.97–11.12 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.96 2.75–7.17 2.17–7.75 | 4.68 2.68–6.68 2.15–7.22 | 9.65 5.43–13.86 4.32–14.97 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 50.64 43.85–57.43 42.18–59.10 | 49.38 42.60–56.17 40.92–57.84 | — | 51% 45% |
| Passes | 417 350–484 332–503 | 372 305–438 288–456 | 789 655–923 620–958 | 65% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.13 71.10–79.16 69.81–80.45 | 72.07 67.75–76.40 66.44–77.70 | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 12.98 10.14–15.81 9.38–16.57 | 13.11 10.16–16.05 9.41–16.80 | 26.08 20.30–31.86 18.80–33.37 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 2.07 0.98–3.17 0.69–3.45 | 4.05 1.80–6.31 1.21–6.90 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.95 | 1.84 0.72–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.48 1.30–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.18 1.75–4.62 1.36–5.01 | 3.16 1.60–4.72 1.18–5.14 | 6.34 3.35–9.34 2.54–10.15 | 42% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+