FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.132.97safe0.87–2.810.27–1.981.15–4.79safer0.62–3.060.05–2.210.67–5.27
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.993.498.48safe3.13–6.851.75–5.234.87–12.08safer2.64–7.341.28–5.703.92–13.04
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction11.376.6017.97safe7.44–15.293.04–10.1610.48–25.45safer6.35–16.382.08–11.128.43–27.51
Shots in box
43%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.777.9215.69safe4.83–10.715.24–10.6010.07–21.32safer4.00–11.544.51–11.348.50–22.88
Blocked shots
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.035.76safe0.85–4.621.37–4.682.22–9.29safer0.31–5.160.88–5.171.19–10.33
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.064.2410.30safe3.85–8.272.24–6.246.08–14.51safer3.27–8.851.70–6.774.98–15.62
Possession %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction53.4346.15safe46.64–60.2239.37–52.94safer44.97–61.8937.70–54.61
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction426328753safe358–493261–394619–887safer340–511244–412584–922
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction73.1766.15safe69.14–77.2061.83–70.48safer67.85–78.4960.52–71.78
Fouls
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6911.6224.30safe9.85–15.528.67–14.5618.52–30.09safer9.09–16.287.93–15.3117.02–31.59
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.013.98safe0.81–3.130.92–3.101.73–6.23safer0.51–3.430.63–3.391.14–6.82
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.973.60safe0.58–2.680.84–3.101.42–5.78safer0.31–2.940.55–3.390.86–6.34
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
36%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.193.596.78safe1.75–4.632.03–5.143.79–9.77safer1.37–5.011.61–5.572.97–10.58
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.87–2.81 0.62–3.06 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.05–2.21 | 2.97 1.15–4.79 0.67–5.27 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 4.99 3.13–6.85 2.64–7.34 | 3.49 1.75–5.23 1.28–5.70 | 8.48 4.87–12.08 3.92–13.04 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 11.37 7.44–15.29 6.35–16.38 | 6.60 3.04–10.16 2.08–11.12 | 17.97 10.48–25.45 8.43–27.51 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 7.77 4.83–10.71 4.00–11.54 | 7.92 5.24–10.60 4.51–11.34 | 15.69 10.07–21.32 8.50–22.88 | 43% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 2.73 0.85–4.62 0.31–5.16 | 3.03 1.37–4.68 0.88–5.17 | 5.76 2.22–9.29 1.19–10.33 | 37% 17% 46% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.85–8.27 3.27–8.85 | 4.24 2.24–6.24 1.70–6.77 | 10.30 6.08–14.51 4.98–15.62 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 53.43 46.64–60.22 44.97–61.89 | 46.15 39.37–52.94 37.70–54.61 | — | 64% 31% |
| Passes | 426 358–493 340–511 | 328 261–394 244–412 | 753 619–887 584–922 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.17 69.14–77.20 67.85–78.49 | 66.15 61.83–70.48 60.52–71.78 | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 12.69 9.85–15.52 9.09–16.28 | 11.62 8.67–14.56 7.93–15.31 | 24.30 18.52–30.09 17.02–31.59 | 55% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 2.01 0.92–3.10 0.63–3.39 | 3.98 1.73–6.23 1.14–6.82 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.68 0.31–2.94 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.60 1.42–5.78 0.86–6.34 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.75–4.63 1.37–5.01 | 3.59 2.03–5.14 1.61–5.57 | 6.78 3.79–9.77 2.97–10.58 | 36% 15% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.