FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
44%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.322.95safe0.65–2.590.47–2.181.12–4.77safer0.40–2.840.24–2.410.64–5.25
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.514.378.88safe2.65–6.372.63–6.115.28–12.49safer2.16–6.862.16–6.584.32–13.44
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0511.6522.69safe7.12–14.978.08–15.2115.21–30.18safer6.03–16.067.12–16.1713.16–32.23
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction7.257.7214.97safe4.31–10.195.04–10.409.34–20.59safer3.48–11.024.30–11.147.78–22.16
Blocked shots
48%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.485.39safe1.03–4.790.82–4.131.85–8.92safer0.48–5.330.33–4.620.81–9.96
Corners
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.379.33safe2.75–7.172.37–6.375.12–13.54safer2.17–7.751.84–6.904.01–14.65
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction49.7649.53safe42.97–56.5542.75–56.32safer41.30–58.2241.08–57.99
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction382372754safe315–449306–439621–888safer297–468288–456585–924
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction66.5669.02safe62.53–70.5964.69–73.34safer61.24–71.8863.39–74.65
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0911.9524.05safe9.26–14.939.01–14.9018.27–29.83safer8.50–15.698.26–15.6516.76–31.34
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.933.95safe0.85–3.170.84–3.031.69–6.20safer0.55–3.480.55–3.311.10–6.79
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.753.30safe0.50–2.590.62–2.881.12–5.48safer0.23–2.860.33–3.170.56–6.03
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.983.366.34safe1.54–4.411.80–4.923.34–9.33safer1.15–4.801.38–5.342.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.65–2.59 0.40–2.84 | 1.32 0.47–2.18 0.24–2.41 | 2.95 1.12–4.77 0.64–5.25 | 44% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.51 2.65–6.37 2.16–6.86 | 4.37 2.63–6.11 2.16–6.58 | 8.88 5.28–12.49 4.32–13.44 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 11.05 7.12–14.97 6.03–16.06 | 11.65 8.08–15.21 7.12–16.17 | 22.69 15.21–30.18 13.16–32.23 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 7.25 4.31–10.19 3.48–11.02 | 7.72 5.04–10.40 4.30–11.14 | 14.97 9.34–20.59 7.78–22.16 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 2.91 1.03–4.79 0.48–5.33 | 2.48 0.82–4.13 0.33–4.62 | 5.39 1.85–8.92 0.81–9.96 | 48% 17% 34% |
| Corners | 4.96 2.75–7.17 2.17–7.75 | 4.37 2.37–6.37 1.84–6.90 | 9.33 5.12–13.54 4.01–14.65 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 49.76 42.97–56.55 41.30–58.22 | 49.53 42.75–56.32 41.08–57.99 | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 382 315–449 297–468 | 372 306–439 288–456 | 754 621–888 585–924 | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.56 62.53–70.59 61.24–71.88 | 69.02 64.69–73.34 63.39–74.65 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 12.09 9.26–14.93 8.50–15.69 | 11.95 9.01–14.90 8.26–15.65 | 24.05 18.27–29.83 16.76–31.34 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.55–3.48 | 1.93 0.84–3.03 0.55–3.31 | 3.95 1.69–6.20 1.10–6.79 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.59 0.23–2.86 | 1.75 0.62–2.88 0.33–3.17 | 3.30 1.12–5.48 0.56–6.03 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.98 1.54–4.41 1.15–4.80 | 3.36 1.80–4.92 1.38–5.34 | 6.34 3.34–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+