FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.212.75safe0.57–2.510.36–2.070.93–4.57safer0.32–2.760.13–2.290.45–5.05
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.744.048.78safe2.88–6.602.30–5.785.18–12.39safer2.39–7.091.83–6.254.22–13.35
Total shots
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9511.5124.46safe9.02–16.877.94–15.0716.97–31.94safer7.93–17.966.99–16.0314.92–33.99
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.276.7014.97safe5.33–11.214.02–9.389.35–20.59safer4.50–12.043.28–10.127.78–22.16
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.166.47safe1.43–5.201.51–4.812.94–10.01safer0.89–5.741.01–5.301.90–11.04
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.214.189.39safe3.00–7.432.18–6.185.18–13.61safer2.43–8.001.65–6.714.07–14.71
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction51.8648.44safe45.07–58.6541.65–55.22safer43.40–60.3239.98–56.90
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction418342759safe350–485275–408625–893safer332–503258–426590–928
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction71.4269.97safe67.39–75.4565.64–74.29safer66.10–76.7464.34–75.60
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7212.7724.49safe8.88–14.559.82–15.7118.70–30.27safer8.12–15.319.08–16.4617.20–31.77
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.094.05safe0.80–3.121.00–3.191.80–6.30safer0.49–3.420.71–3.471.21–6.89
Yellow cards
37%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.593.12safe0.48–2.580.47–2.720.94–5.30safer0.21–2.840.17–3.010.39–5.86
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.386.49safe1.67–4.551.82–4.943.50–9.48safer1.29–4.931.40–5.362.69–10.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.57–2.51 0.32–2.76 | 1.21 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.29 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.45–5.05 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.74 2.88–6.60 2.39–7.09 | 4.04 2.30–5.78 1.83–6.25 | 8.78 5.18–12.39 4.22–13.35 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 12.95 9.02–16.87 7.93–17.96 | 11.51 7.94–15.07 6.99–16.03 | 24.46 16.97–31.94 14.92–33.99 | 58% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.27 5.33–11.21 4.50–12.04 | 6.70 4.02–9.38 3.28–10.12 | 14.97 9.35–20.59 7.78–22.16 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.43–5.20 0.89–5.74 | 3.16 1.51–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 6.47 2.94–10.01 1.90–11.04 | 44% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 5.21 3.00–7.43 2.43–8.00 | 4.18 2.18–6.18 1.65–6.71 | 9.39 5.18–13.61 4.07–14.71 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 51.86 45.07–58.65 43.40–60.32 | 48.44 41.65–55.22 39.98–56.90 | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 418 350–485 332–503 | 342 275–408 258–426 | 759 625–893 590–928 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.42 67.39–75.45 66.10–76.74 | 69.97 65.64–74.29 64.34–75.60 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 11.72 8.88–14.55 8.12–15.31 | 12.77 9.82–15.71 9.08–16.46 | 24.49 18.70–30.27 17.20–31.77 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.49–3.42 | 2.09 1.00–3.19 0.71–3.47 | 4.05 1.80–6.30 1.21–6.89 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.21–2.84 | 1.59 0.47–2.72 0.17–3.01 | 3.12 0.94–5.30 0.39–5.86 | 37% 24% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.67–4.55 1.29–4.93 | 3.38 1.82–4.94 1.40–5.36 | 6.49 3.50–9.48 2.69–10.30 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.