FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.172.86safe0.72–2.660.32–2.031.04–4.69safer0.47–2.910.09–2.250.56–5.17
Shots on target
50%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.158.78safe2.76–6.492.41–5.905.17–12.38safer2.27–6.981.94–6.364.22–13.34
Total shots
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction11.678.9020.57safe7.75–15.605.34–12.4613.09–28.06safer6.66–16.694.38–13.4211.04–30.11
Shots in box
49%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction7.947.4815.42safe4.99–10.884.80–10.169.80–21.04safer4.17–11.714.06–10.908.23–22.61
Blocked shots
52%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.405.45safe1.17–4.930.75–4.051.91–8.98safer0.62–5.480.25–4.540.88–10.02
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.249.67safe3.21–7.642.24–6.245.45–13.88safer2.64–8.221.71–6.774.35–14.99
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.6448.61safe43.85–57.4341.82–55.39safer42.18–59.1040.15–57.06
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction401373775safe334–468307–440641–908safer316–486289–457605–944
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction69.1470.05safe65.11–73.1765.73–74.38safer63.82–74.4664.42–75.69
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9513.0825.03safe9.11–14.7910.13–16.0219.25–30.81safer8.36–15.549.38–16.7717.74–32.31
Offsides
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.893.92safe0.86–3.180.80–2.991.66–6.17safer0.56–3.490.51–3.281.07–6.76
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.023.58safe0.50–2.600.89–3.151.40–5.76safer0.24–2.870.60–3.440.84–6.31
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.226.09safe1.44–4.311.66–4.773.10–9.08safer1.05–4.701.23–5.202.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.72–2.66 0.47–2.91 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.25 | 2.86 1.04–4.69 0.56–5.17 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.76–6.49 2.27–6.98 | 4.15 2.41–5.90 1.94–6.36 | 8.78 5.17–12.38 4.22–13.34 | 50% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 11.67 7.75–15.60 6.66–16.69 | 8.90 5.34–12.46 4.38–13.42 | 20.57 13.09–28.06 11.04–30.11 | 69% 23% |
| Shots in box | 7.94 4.99–10.88 4.17–11.71 | 7.48 4.80–10.16 4.06–10.90 | 15.42 9.80–21.04 8.23–22.61 | 49% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.05 1.17–4.93 0.62–5.48 | 2.40 0.75–4.05 0.25–4.54 | 5.45 1.91–8.98 0.88–10.02 | 52% 17% 31% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.21–7.64 2.64–8.22 | 4.24 2.24–6.24 1.71–6.77 | 9.67 5.45–13.88 4.35–14.99 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 50.64 43.85–57.43 42.18–59.10 | 48.61 41.82–55.39 40.15–57.06 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 401 334–468 316–486 | 373 307–440 289–457 | 775 641–908 605–944 | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.14 65.11–73.17 63.82–74.46 | 70.05 65.73–74.38 64.42–75.69 | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 11.95 9.11–14.79 8.36–15.54 | 13.08 10.13–16.02 9.38–16.77 | 25.03 19.25–30.81 17.74–32.31 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.56–3.49 | 1.89 0.80–2.99 0.51–3.28 | 3.92 1.66–6.17 1.07–6.76 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.84–6.31 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 3.22 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.20 | 6.09 3.10–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 36% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+