FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.682.97safe0.33–2.260.82–2.531.15–4.80safer0.08–2.510.60–2.760.67–5.28
Shots on target
36%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.174.748.90safe2.30–6.032.99–6.485.30–12.51safer1.81–6.522.53–6.954.34–13.46
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction9.3814.6424.02safe5.46–13.3111.08–18.2116.54–31.51safer4.36–14.4010.12–19.1714.49–33.56
Shots in box
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction6.359.7816.13safe3.41–9.297.10–12.4610.51–21.75safer2.58–10.126.36–13.208.94–23.32
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.006.20safe1.32–5.081.35–4.652.67–9.74safer0.78–5.630.85–5.151.63–10.77
Corners
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.394.999.39safe2.18–6.612.99–6.995.18–13.60safer1.61–7.182.46–7.534.07–14.71
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.5554.67safe39.76–53.3447.88–61.45safer38.09–55.0146.21–63.12
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction347430777safe280–414364–497643–911safer261–432346–514608–946
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction64.5372.31safe60.50–68.5667.99–76.64safer59.21–69.8566.68–77.95
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9712.4925.46safe10.13–15.819.55–15.4319.68–31.24safer9.37–16.568.80–16.1818.17–32.75
Offsides
35%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.164.07safe0.75–3.071.06–3.251.81–6.32safer0.45–3.370.78–3.541.23–6.91
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.643.20safe0.52–2.620.51–2.771.03–5.38safer0.25–2.880.22–3.060.47–5.94
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.372.806.16safe1.93–4.801.24–4.353.17–9.15safer1.54–5.190.82–4.782.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.33–2.26 0.08–2.51 | 1.68 0.82–2.53 0.60–2.76 | 2.97 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 30% 24% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.30–6.03 1.81–6.52 | 4.74 2.99–6.48 2.53–6.95 | 8.90 5.30–12.51 4.34–13.46 | 36% 13% 51% |
| Total shots | 9.38 5.46–13.31 4.36–14.40 | 14.64 11.08–18.21 10.12–19.17 | 24.02 16.54–31.51 14.49–33.56 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 6.35 3.41–9.29 2.58–10.12 | 9.78 7.10–12.46 6.36–13.20 | 16.13 10.51–21.75 8.94–23.32 | 16% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.32–5.08 0.78–5.63 | 3.00 1.35–4.65 0.85–5.15 | 6.20 2.67–9.74 1.63–10.77 | 45% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 4.39 2.18–6.61 1.61–7.18 | 4.99 2.99–6.99 2.46–7.53 | 9.39 5.18–13.60 4.07–14.71 | 36% 51% |
| Possession % | 46.55 39.76–53.34 38.09–55.01 | 54.67 47.88–61.45 46.21–63.12 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 347 280–414 261–432 | 430 364–497 346–514 | 777 643–911 608–946 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.53 60.50–68.56 59.21–69.85 | 72.31 67.99–76.64 66.68–77.95 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.97 10.13–15.81 9.37–16.56 | 12.49 9.55–15.43 8.80–16.18 | 25.46 19.68–31.24 18.17–32.75 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.75–3.07 0.45–3.37 | 2.16 1.06–3.25 0.78–3.54 | 4.07 1.81–6.32 1.23–6.91 | 35% 20% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.25–2.88 | 1.64 0.51–2.77 0.22–3.06 | 3.20 1.03–5.38 0.47–5.94 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.93–4.80 1.54–5.19 | 2.80 1.24–4.35 0.82–4.78 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.36–9.97 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.