FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
60%
21%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.073.13safe1.10–3.030.21–1.921.31–4.96safer0.85–3.280.00–2.150.83–5.44
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.983.328.30safe3.12–6.841.58–5.074.70–11.91safer2.63–7.331.11–5.533.74–12.86
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction13.456.3419.79safe9.53–17.372.78–9.9012.30–27.28safer8.43–18.471.82–10.8610.25–29.33
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.217.2415.45safe5.27–11.154.56–9.929.83–21.07safer4.44–11.983.82–10.668.26–22.64
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.176.55safe1.49–5.261.52–4.823.01–10.08safer0.95–5.801.02–5.321.97–11.12
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.293.879.15safe3.07–7.501.87–5.874.94–13.37safer2.50–8.071.33–6.403.83–14.47
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction52.0547.73safe45.26–58.8440.95–54.52safer43.59–60.5139.27–56.19
Passes
65%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction408363772safe341–476297–429638–905safer323–494279–447602–941
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction74.1868.90safe70.15–78.2164.57–73.22safer68.86–79.5063.26–74.53
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0012.0125.02safe10.17–15.849.07–14.9619.23–30.80safer9.41–16.608.32–15.7017.73–32.30
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.853.89safe0.88–3.200.75–2.941.63–6.14safer0.58–3.500.47–3.231.05–6.73
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.833.38safe0.50–2.600.70–2.961.20–5.56safer0.24–2.870.41–3.250.65–6.12
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.436.28safe1.41–4.291.87–4.983.28–9.27safer1.03–4.671.45–5.412.47–10.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.07 1.10–3.03 0.85–3.28 | 1.07 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 3.13 1.31–4.96 0.83–5.44 | 60% 21% 19% |
| Shots on target | 4.98 3.12–6.84 2.63–7.33 | 3.32 1.58–5.07 1.11–5.53 | 8.30 4.70–11.91 3.74–12.86 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 13.45 9.53–17.37 8.43–18.47 | 6.34 2.78–9.90 1.82–10.86 | 19.79 12.30–27.28 10.25–29.33 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 8.21 5.27–11.15 4.44–11.98 | 7.24 4.56–9.92 3.82–10.66 | 15.45 9.83–21.07 8.26–22.64 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.49–5.26 0.95–5.80 | 3.17 1.52–4.82 1.02–5.32 | 6.55 3.01–10.08 1.97–11.12 | 45% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.07–7.50 2.50–8.07 | 3.87 1.87–5.87 1.33–6.40 | 9.15 4.94–13.37 3.83–14.47 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 52.05 45.26–58.84 43.59–60.51 | 47.73 40.95–54.52 39.27–56.19 | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 408 341–476 323–494 | 363 297–429 279–447 | 772 638–905 602–941 | 65% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.18 70.15–78.21 68.86–79.50 | 68.90 64.57–73.22 63.26–74.53 | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 13.00 10.17–15.84 9.41–16.60 | 12.01 9.07–14.96 8.32–15.70 | 25.02 19.23–30.80 17.73–32.30 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 1.85 0.75–2.94 0.47–3.23 | 3.89 1.63–6.14 1.05–6.73 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.38 1.20–5.56 0.65–6.12 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.41–4.29 1.03–4.67 | 3.43 1.87–4.98 1.45–5.41 | 6.28 3.28–9.27 2.47–10.08 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+