FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.312.63safe0.35–2.280.46–2.170.80–4.45safer0.10–2.530.23–2.400.33–4.93
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.168.61safe2.59–6.322.42–5.905.01–12.22safer2.10–6.811.95–6.374.05–13.17
Total shots
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7313.9924.71safe6.80–14.6510.42–17.5517.23–32.20safer5.71–15.749.46–18.5115.18–34.25
Shots in box
42%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction7.207.4714.67safe4.26–10.144.79–10.159.05–20.29safer3.43–10.974.05–10.897.48–21.86
Blocked shots
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.982.765.73safe1.09–4.861.10–4.412.20–9.27safer0.55–5.400.61–4.901.16–10.30
Corners
50%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.329.19safe2.65–7.082.32–6.324.97–13.40safer2.07–7.651.79–6.863.87–14.51
Possession %
44%
52%
homeawayprediction49.1450.87safe42.34–55.9344.09–57.66safer40.68–57.6042.42–59.33
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction385400786safe318–453334–467652–920safer300–471316–484617–955
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction66.8370.86safe62.80–70.8666.53–75.18safer61.50–72.1565.22–76.49
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6513.0825.73safe9.81–15.4910.13–16.0219.94–31.51safer9.05–16.249.38–16.7718.44–33.01
Offsides
38%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.003.90safe0.74–3.060.91–3.091.64–6.15safer0.44–3.360.62–3.381.06–6.74
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.793.42safe0.59–2.680.66–2.921.25–5.60safer0.32–2.950.37–3.210.69–6.16
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.236.09safe1.42–4.291.67–4.783.09–9.08safer1.03–4.681.25–5.212.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.28 0.10–2.53 | 1.31 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.40 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.33–4.93 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.59–6.32 2.10–6.81 | 4.16 2.42–5.90 1.95–6.37 | 8.61 5.01–12.22 4.05–13.17 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 10.73 6.80–14.65 5.71–15.74 | 13.99 10.42–17.55 9.46–18.51 | 24.71 17.23–32.20 15.18–34.25 | 22% 71% |
| Shots in box | 7.20 4.26–10.14 3.43–10.97 | 7.47 4.79–10.15 4.05–10.89 | 14.67 9.05–20.29 7.48–21.86 | 42% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 2.98 1.09–4.86 0.55–5.40 | 2.76 1.10–4.41 0.61–4.90 | 5.73 2.20–9.27 1.16–10.30 | 45% 17% 38% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.65–7.08 2.07–7.65 | 4.32 2.32–6.32 1.79–6.86 | 9.19 4.97–13.40 3.87–14.51 | 50% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 49.14 42.34–55.93 40.68–57.60 | 50.87 44.09–57.66 42.42–59.33 | — | 44% 52% |
| Passes | 385 318–453 300–471 | 400 334–467 316–484 | 786 652–920 617–955 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.83 62.80–70.86 61.50–72.15 | 70.86 66.53–75.18 65.22–76.49 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 12.65 9.81–15.49 9.05–16.24 | 13.08 10.13–16.02 9.38–16.77 | 25.73 19.94–31.51 18.44–33.01 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 2.00 0.91–3.09 0.62–3.38 | 3.90 1.64–6.15 1.06–6.74 | 38% 21% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.68 0.32–2.95 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.42 1.25–5.60 0.69–6.16 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.23 1.67–4.78 1.25–5.21 | 6.09 3.09–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.