FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.603.12safe0.56–2.500.74–2.451.30–4.95safer0.31–2.750.51–2.680.82–5.43
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.354.568.90safe2.48–6.212.82–6.305.30–12.51safer1.99–6.702.35–6.774.34–13.47
Total shots
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7013.6626.36safe8.77–16.6210.10–17.2218.87–33.85safer7.68–17.719.14–18.1816.82–35.90
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction7.918.4916.40safe4.97–10.855.81–11.1710.78–22.03safer4.14–11.685.07–11.919.21–23.59
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.253.226.47safe1.37–5.131.56–4.872.93–10.00safer0.82–5.671.07–5.361.89–11.04
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.755.189.92safe2.53–6.963.18–7.185.71–14.14safer1.96–7.532.65–7.714.60–15.25
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction48.7350.84safe41.94–55.5244.06–57.63safer40.27–57.1942.39–59.30
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction409388797safe342–477321–454663–931safer324–495304–472628–966
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction71.0170.59safe66.98–75.0466.26–74.91safer65.69–76.3364.96–76.22
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3011.9824.28safe9.47–15.149.04–14.9318.50–30.07safer8.71–15.908.29–15.6717.00–31.57
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.943.89safe0.79–3.110.84–3.031.63–6.14safer0.49–3.410.55–3.321.04–6.73
Yellow cards
38%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.593.19safe0.54–2.640.46–2.721.01–5.36safer0.28–2.910.17–3.010.45–5.92
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.016.06safe1.62–4.491.45–4.563.07–9.06safer1.23–4.881.03–4.992.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.60 0.74–2.45 0.51–2.68 | 3.12 1.30–4.95 0.82–5.43 | 37% 24% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.35 2.48–6.21 1.99–6.70 | 4.56 2.82–6.30 2.35–6.77 | 8.90 5.30–12.51 4.34–13.47 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.70 8.77–16.62 7.68–17.71 | 13.66 10.10–17.22 9.14–18.18 | 26.36 18.87–33.85 16.82–35.90 | 39% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.91 4.97–10.85 4.14–11.68 | 8.49 5.81–11.17 5.07–11.91 | 16.40 10.78–22.03 9.21–23.59 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.37–5.13 0.82–5.67 | 3.22 1.56–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 6.47 2.93–10.00 1.89–11.04 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.75 2.53–6.96 1.96–7.53 | 5.18 3.18–7.18 2.65–7.71 | 9.92 5.71–14.14 4.60–15.25 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 48.73 41.94–55.52 40.27–57.19 | 50.84 44.06–57.63 42.39–59.30 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 409 342–477 324–495 | 388 321–454 304–472 | 797 663–931 628–966 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.01 66.98–75.04 65.69–76.33 | 70.59 66.26–74.91 64.96–76.22 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 12.30 9.47–15.14 8.71–15.90 | 11.98 9.04–14.93 8.29–15.67 | 24.28 18.50–30.07 17.00–31.57 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 1.94 0.84–3.03 0.55–3.32 | 3.89 1.63–6.14 1.04–6.73 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 1.59 0.46–2.72 0.17–3.01 | 3.19 1.01–5.36 0.45–5.92 | 38% 23% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.88 | 3.01 1.45–4.56 1.03–4.99 | 6.06 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+