FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.282.74safe0.48–2.420.43–2.140.91–4.56safer0.23–2.670.20–2.370.43–5.04
Shots on target
50%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.128.75safe2.77–6.502.38–5.865.15–12.36safer2.28–6.991.91–6.334.19–13.31
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9910.7321.72safe7.06–14.917.17–14.3014.23–29.21safer5.97–16.006.21–15.2612.18–31.26
Shots in box
60%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction7.776.3114.07safe4.82–10.713.62–8.998.45–19.69safer3.99–11.542.89–9.726.88–21.26
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.923.176.09safe1.03–4.801.52–4.822.55–9.62safer0.49–5.341.03–5.321.52–10.66
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.069.43safe3.16–7.582.06–6.065.21–13.64safer2.58–8.161.52–6.594.11–14.75
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction51.9047.93safe45.11–58.6941.14–54.71safer43.44–60.3639.47–56.38
Passes
65%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction412366778safe345–479300–433645–912safer327–498282–450609–948
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction70.2068.70safe66.17–74.2364.38–73.03safer64.88–75.5263.07–74.34
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7611.5824.34safe9.92–15.608.63–14.5218.55–30.12safer9.17–16.357.88–15.2717.05–31.62
Offsides
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.063.96safe0.74–3.060.97–3.151.71–6.22safer0.44–3.370.68–3.441.12–6.81
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.913.57safe0.62–2.710.78–3.041.40–5.75safer0.35–2.980.49–3.330.84–6.31
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.166.02safe1.43–4.301.60–4.713.03–9.01safer1.04–4.691.17–5.142.22–9.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.74 0.91–4.56 0.43–5.04 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.77–6.50 2.28–6.99 | 4.12 2.38–5.86 1.91–6.33 | 8.75 5.15–12.36 4.19–13.31 | 50% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 10.99 7.06–14.91 5.97–16.00 | 10.73 7.17–14.30 6.21–15.26 | 21.72 14.23–29.21 12.18–31.26 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 7.77 4.82–10.71 3.99–11.54 | 6.31 3.62–8.99 2.89–9.72 | 14.07 8.45–19.69 6.88–21.26 | 60% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 1.03–4.80 0.49–5.34 | 3.17 1.52–4.82 1.03–5.32 | 6.09 2.55–9.62 1.52–10.66 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.58 2.58–8.16 | 4.06 2.06–6.06 1.52–6.59 | 9.43 5.21–13.64 4.11–14.75 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.90 45.11–58.69 43.44–60.36 | 47.93 41.14–54.71 39.47–56.38 | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 412 345–479 327–498 | 366 300–433 282–450 | 778 645–912 609–948 | 65% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.20 66.17–74.23 64.88–75.52 | 68.70 64.38–73.03 63.07–74.34 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 12.76 9.92–15.60 9.17–16.35 | 11.58 8.63–14.52 7.88–15.27 | 24.34 18.55–30.12 17.05–31.62 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.37 | 2.06 0.97–3.15 0.68–3.44 | 3.96 1.71–6.22 1.12–6.81 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.62–2.71 0.35–2.98 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.57 1.40–5.75 0.84–6.31 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 3.16 1.60–4.71 1.17–5.14 | 6.02 3.03–9.01 2.22–9.83 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.