FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
63%
21%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.990.902.90safe1.02–2.960.05–1.761.07–4.72safer0.77–3.210.00–1.990.59–5.20
Shots on target
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.492.988.47safe3.62–7.351.24–4.724.86–12.07safer3.14–7.840.77–5.193.91–13.03
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction14.937.2522.18safe11.01–18.863.69–10.8114.70–29.67safer9.92–19.952.73–11.7712.65–31.72
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction9.475.2114.68safe6.53–12.422.53–7.899.06–20.30safer5.70–13.251.79–8.627.49–21.87
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.495.98safe1.61–5.380.84–4.142.45–9.52safer1.07–5.920.35–4.641.41–10.55
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.583.099.67safe4.37–8.791.09–5.095.45–13.88safer3.79–9.370.55–5.624.35–14.99
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction54.7743.39safe47.98–61.5636.60–50.17safer46.31–63.2334.93–51.84
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction454405859safe387–522339–471726–993safer369–540321–489690–1029
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction73.9569.13safe69.92–77.9864.80–73.45safer68.63–79.2763.49–74.76
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2711.4822.75safe8.43–14.118.54–14.4316.97–28.53safer7.68–14.867.79–15.1715.46–30.04
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.923.89safe0.81–3.130.83–3.011.64–6.14safer0.51–3.430.54–3.301.05–6.73
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.983.51safe0.48–2.580.85–3.111.33–5.69safer0.22–2.850.56–3.400.78–6.25
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
23%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.253.465.72safe0.82–3.691.91–5.022.72–8.71safer0.43–4.081.48–5.451.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 1.02–2.96 0.77–3.21 | 0.90 0.05–1.76 0.00–1.99 | 2.90 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.20 | 63% 21% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.49 3.62–7.35 3.14–7.84 | 2.98 1.24–4.72 0.77–5.19 | 8.47 4.86–12.07 3.91–13.03 | 76% 15% |
| Total shots | 14.93 11.01–18.86 9.92–19.95 | 7.25 3.69–10.81 2.73–11.77 | 22.18 14.70–29.67 12.65–31.72 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 9.47 6.53–12.42 5.70–13.25 | 5.21 2.53–7.89 1.79–8.62 | 14.68 9.06–20.30 7.49–21.87 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.61–5.38 1.07–5.92 | 2.49 0.84–4.14 0.35–4.64 | 5.98 2.45–9.52 1.41–10.55 | 58% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 6.58 4.37–8.79 3.79–9.37 | 3.09 1.09–5.09 0.55–5.62 | 9.67 5.45–13.88 4.35–14.99 | 84% |
| Possession % | 54.77 47.98–61.56 46.31–63.23 | 43.39 36.60–50.17 34.93–51.84 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 454 387–522 369–540 | 405 339–471 321–489 | 859 726–993 690–1029 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.95 69.92–77.98 68.63–79.27 | 69.13 64.80–73.45 63.49–74.76 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 11.27 8.43–14.11 7.68–14.86 | 11.48 8.54–14.43 7.79–15.17 | 22.75 16.97–28.53 15.46–30.04 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.92 0.83–3.01 0.54–3.30 | 3.89 1.64–6.14 1.05–6.73 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.22–2.85 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.51 1.33–5.69 0.78–6.25 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.25 0.82–3.69 0.43–4.08 | 3.46 1.91–5.02 1.48–5.45 | 5.72 2.72–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 23% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.