FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.172.52safe0.38–2.320.32–2.030.70–4.34safer0.13–2.570.09–2.260.22–4.82
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.723.788.50safe2.85–6.582.04–5.524.89–12.10safer2.36–7.071.57–5.993.94–13.06
Total shots
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction11.599.3220.91safe7.67–15.525.76–12.8813.42–28.40safer6.57–16.614.80–13.8411.37–30.45
Shots in box
60%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction7.916.4714.38safe4.97–10.853.79–9.158.76–20.01safer4.14–11.683.05–9.897.19–21.58
Blocked shots
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.955.91safe1.08–4.841.29–4.602.37–9.44safer0.53–5.380.80–5.091.34–10.48
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.974.099.07safe2.76–7.192.09–6.094.85–13.28safer2.19–7.761.56–6.633.75–14.39
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction53.0247.58safe46.23–59.8240.79–54.36safer44.56–61.4839.12–56.03
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction423397820safe356–491330–463686–954safer338–509313–481651–989
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction72.6070.21safe68.57–76.6365.89–74.53safer67.28–77.9264.58–75.84
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6012.5725.18safe9.77–15.449.63–15.5219.39–30.96safer9.01–16.208.88–16.2717.89–32.46
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.973.94safe0.81–3.130.88–3.061.69–6.19safer0.51–3.430.59–3.351.10–6.78
Yellow cards
37%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.773.47safe0.65–2.750.64–2.901.30–5.65safer0.39–3.020.35–3.190.74–6.21
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.396.22safe1.40–4.271.83–4.943.23–9.21safer1.01–4.661.41–5.372.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.52 0.70–4.34 0.22–4.82 | 41% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.85–6.58 2.36–7.07 | 3.78 2.04–5.52 1.57–5.99 | 8.50 4.89–12.10 3.94–13.06 | 56% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 11.59 7.67–15.52 6.57–16.61 | 9.32 5.76–12.88 4.80–13.84 | 20.91 13.42–28.40 11.37–30.45 | 65% 27% |
| Shots in box | 7.91 4.97–10.85 4.14–11.68 | 6.47 3.79–9.15 3.05–9.89 | 14.38 8.76–20.01 7.19–21.58 | 60% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 1.08–4.84 0.53–5.38 | 2.95 1.29–4.60 0.80–5.09 | 5.91 2.37–9.44 1.34–10.48 | 42% 17% 41% |
| Corners | 4.97 2.76–7.19 2.19–7.76 | 4.09 2.09–6.09 1.56–6.63 | 9.07 4.85–13.28 3.75–14.39 | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 53.02 46.23–59.82 44.56–61.48 | 47.58 40.79–54.36 39.12–56.03 | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 423 356–491 338–509 | 397 330–463 313–481 | 820 686–954 651–989 | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.60 68.57–76.63 67.28–77.92 | 70.21 65.89–74.53 64.58–75.84 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 12.60 9.77–15.44 9.01–16.20 | 12.57 9.63–15.52 8.88–16.27 | 25.18 19.39–30.96 17.89–32.46 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.97 0.88–3.06 0.59–3.35 | 3.94 1.69–6.19 1.10–6.78 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.47 1.30–5.65 0.74–6.21 | 37% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.39 1.83–4.94 1.41–5.37 | 6.22 3.23–9.21 2.42–10.03 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+