FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.342.97safe0.66–2.600.49–2.201.15–4.80safer0.41–2.850.26–2.420.67–5.28
Shots on target
51%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.038.63safe2.73–6.462.29–5.785.02–12.23safer2.24–6.951.83–6.244.07–13.19
Total shots
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4710.7122.18safe7.55–15.407.15–14.2714.69–29.67safer6.46–16.496.19–15.2312.64–31.72
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction7.987.2715.24safe5.04–10.924.59–9.959.62–20.87safer4.21–11.753.85–10.698.05–22.43
Blocked shots
44%
18%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.565.29safe0.84–4.600.91–4.221.75–8.82safer0.30–5.150.42–4.710.71–9.86
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.179.28safe2.89–7.322.17–6.175.06–13.49safer2.32–7.891.64–6.703.96–14.60
Possession %
52%
44%
homeawayprediction50.7048.95safe43.91–57.4942.16–55.73safer42.24–59.1640.49–57.40
Passes
62%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction428390818safe361–496324–457685–952safer343–514306–474649–988
Pass accuracy %
48%
46%
homeawayprediction69.2169.03safe65.18–73.2464.70–73.35safer63.89–74.5363.39–74.66
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3711.3323.70safe9.54–15.218.38–14.2717.92–29.48safer8.78–15.977.63–15.0216.41–30.99
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.973.97safe0.84–3.160.88–3.071.72–6.23safer0.54–3.460.59–3.361.13–6.81
Yellow cards
35%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.753.32safe0.51–2.610.62–2.881.14–5.49safer0.25–2.880.33–3.170.58–6.05
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
40%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.933.065.98safe1.49–4.371.50–4.612.99–8.98safer1.11–4.751.07–5.042.18–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 0.66–2.60 0.41–2.85 | 1.34 0.49–2.20 0.26–2.42 | 2.97 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.59 2.73–6.46 2.24–6.95 | 4.03 2.29–5.78 1.83–6.24 | 8.63 5.02–12.23 4.07–13.19 | 51% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 11.47 7.55–15.40 6.46–16.49 | 10.71 7.15–14.27 6.19–15.23 | 22.18 14.69–29.67 12.64–31.72 | 52% 39% |
| Shots in box | 7.98 5.04–10.92 4.21–11.75 | 7.27 4.59–9.95 3.85–10.69 | 15.24 9.62–20.87 8.05–22.43 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 2.72 0.84–4.60 0.30–5.15 | 2.56 0.91–4.22 0.42–4.71 | 5.29 1.75–8.82 0.71–9.86 | 44% 18% 38% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.89–7.32 2.32–7.89 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.64–6.70 | 9.28 5.06–13.49 3.96–14.60 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 50.70 43.91–57.49 42.24–59.16 | 48.95 42.16–55.73 40.49–57.40 | — | 52% 44% |
| Passes | 428 361–496 343–514 | 390 324–457 306–474 | 818 685–952 649–988 | 62% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.21 65.18–73.24 63.89–74.53 | 69.03 64.70–73.35 63.39–74.66 | — | 48% 46% |
| Fouls | 12.37 9.54–15.21 8.78–15.97 | 11.33 8.38–14.27 7.63–15.02 | 23.70 17.92–29.48 16.41–30.99 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.54–3.46 | 1.97 0.88–3.07 0.59–3.36 | 3.97 1.72–6.23 1.13–6.81 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.25–2.88 | 1.75 0.62–2.88 0.33–3.17 | 3.32 1.14–5.49 0.58–6.05 | 35% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.49–4.37 1.11–4.75 | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.04 | 5.98 2.99–8.98 2.18–9.79 | 40% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.