FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.303.00safe0.73–2.670.44–2.151.17–4.82safer0.48–2.920.22–2.380.69–5.30
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.083.969.04safe3.21–6.942.22–5.715.43–12.64safer2.72–7.431.76–6.174.48–13.60
Total shots
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction13.739.1422.87safe9.80–17.655.57–12.7015.38–30.35safer8.71–18.744.62–13.6613.33–32.40
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction8.486.1214.60safe5.54–11.423.44–8.808.98–20.23safer4.71–12.252.71–9.547.41–21.79
Blocked shots
38%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.263.566.83safe1.38–5.151.91–5.223.29–10.36safer0.84–5.691.42–5.712.26–11.40
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.453.959.40safe3.23–7.661.95–5.955.18–13.61safer2.66–8.241.42–6.484.08–14.72
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction51.5750.00safe44.78–58.3643.21–56.78safer43.11–60.0341.54–58.45
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction413380792safe345–480313–446659–926safer327–498296–464623–962
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction75.7269.75safe71.69–79.7565.43–74.08safer70.39–81.0464.12–75.38
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4211.1623.58safe9.58–15.268.21–14.1017.79–29.36safer8.83–16.017.46–14.8516.29–30.86
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.933.93safe0.85–3.170.83–3.021.68–6.19safer0.55–3.470.55–3.311.09–6.78
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.873.52safe0.60–2.690.74–3.001.34–5.70safer0.33–2.960.45–3.290.78–6.25
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.356.20safe1.41–4.291.79–4.903.20–9.19safer1.03–4.671.37–5.332.39–10.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.67 0.48–2.92 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.22–2.38 | 3.00 1.17–4.82 0.69–5.30 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.21–6.94 2.72–7.43 | 3.96 2.22–5.71 1.76–6.17 | 9.04 5.43–12.64 4.48–13.60 | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 13.73 9.80–17.65 8.71–18.74 | 9.14 5.57–12.70 4.62–13.66 | 22.87 15.38–30.35 13.33–32.40 | 80% 14% |
| Shots in box | 8.48 5.54–11.42 4.71–12.25 | 6.12 3.44–8.80 2.71–9.54 | 14.60 8.98–20.23 7.41–21.79 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.38–5.15 0.84–5.69 | 3.56 1.91–5.22 1.42–5.71 | 6.83 3.29–10.36 2.26–11.40 | 38% 15% 47% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.23–7.66 2.66–8.24 | 3.95 1.95–5.95 1.42–6.48 | 9.40 5.18–13.61 4.08–14.72 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 51.57 44.78–58.36 43.11–60.03 | 50.00 43.21–56.78 41.54–58.45 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 413 345–480 327–498 | 380 313–446 296–464 | 792 659–926 623–962 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.72 71.69–79.75 70.39–81.04 | 69.75 65.43–74.08 64.12–75.38 | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 12.42 9.58–15.26 8.83–16.01 | 11.16 8.21–14.10 7.46–14.85 | 23.58 17.79–29.36 16.29–30.86 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.55–3.47 | 1.93 0.83–3.02 0.55–3.31 | 3.93 1.68–6.19 1.09–6.78 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.69 0.33–2.96 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.78–6.25 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.41–4.29 1.03–4.67 | 3.35 1.79–4.90 1.37–5.33 | 6.20 3.20–9.19 2.39–10.00 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.