FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.582.99safe0.44–2.380.73–2.441.17–4.81safer0.19–2.630.50–2.660.69–5.29
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.135.209.33safe2.27–5.993.46–6.945.73–12.94safer1.78–6.482.99–7.414.77–13.89
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5814.8924.47safe5.65–13.5011.33–18.4516.98–31.95safer4.56–14.5910.37–19.4114.93–34.00
Shots in box
28%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction6.588.3014.88safe3.64–9.525.62–10.989.25–20.50safer2.81–10.354.88–11.727.69–22.07
Blocked shots
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.835.47safe0.75–4.521.18–4.491.93–9.00safer0.21–5.060.69–4.980.90–10.04
Corners
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.809.55safe2.54–6.972.80–6.805.34–13.77safer1.97–7.542.27–7.334.23–14.88
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.2150.55safe41.42–55.0043.76–57.33safer39.75–56.6742.09–59.01
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction369384753safe302–436318–451620–887safer284–454300–468584–923
Pass accuracy %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction66.0070.21safe61.97–70.0365.89–74.54safer60.68–71.3364.58–75.85
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9612.1924.14safe9.12–14.799.24–15.1318.36–29.92safer8.36–15.558.49–15.8816.86–31.43
Offsides
37%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.923.71safe0.63–2.950.83–3.011.46–5.97safer0.33–3.250.54–3.300.87–6.56
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.713.33safe0.57–2.670.58–2.841.15–5.51safer0.30–2.930.29–3.130.59–6.06
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.122.996.11safe1.68–4.551.44–4.553.12–9.10safer1.29–4.941.01–4.972.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.58 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.66 | 2.99 1.17–4.81 0.69–5.29 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.27–5.99 1.78–6.48 | 5.20 3.46–6.94 2.99–7.41 | 9.33 5.73–12.94 4.77–13.89 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 9.58 5.65–13.50 4.56–14.59 | 14.89 11.33–18.45 10.37–19.41 | 24.47 16.98–31.95 14.93–34.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 6.58 3.64–9.52 2.81–10.35 | 8.30 5.62–10.98 4.88–11.72 | 14.88 9.25–20.50 7.69–22.07 | 28% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 2.63 0.75–4.52 0.21–5.06 | 2.83 1.18–4.49 0.69–4.98 | 5.47 1.93–9.00 0.90–10.04 | 38% 17% 45% |
| Corners | 4.75 2.54–6.97 1.97–7.54 | 4.80 2.80–6.80 2.27–7.33 | 9.55 5.34–13.77 4.23–14.88 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 48.21 41.42–55.00 39.75–56.67 | 50.55 43.76–57.33 42.09–59.01 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 369 302–436 284–454 | 384 318–451 300–468 | 753 620–887 584–923 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.00 61.97–70.03 60.68–71.33 | 70.21 65.89–74.54 64.58–75.85 | — | 27% 68% |
| Fouls | 11.96 9.12–14.79 8.36–15.55 | 12.19 9.24–15.13 8.49–15.88 | 24.14 18.36–29.92 16.86–31.43 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.33–3.25 | 1.92 0.83–3.01 0.54–3.30 | 3.71 1.46–5.97 0.87–6.56 | 37% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 1.71 0.58–2.84 0.29–3.13 | 3.33 1.15–5.51 0.59–6.06 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.12 1.68–4.55 1.29–4.94 | 2.99 1.44–4.55 1.01–4.97 | 6.11 3.12–9.10 2.30–9.91 | 44% 16% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.