UEFA Nations League·League A - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League A - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Alejandro Hernandez
Goals
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.543.08safe0.58–2.500.68–2.401.26–4.90safer0.32–2.760.44–2.650.75–5.41actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.184.588.75safe2.32–6.032.87–6.285.19–12.32safer1.82–6.532.40–6.754.22–13.28actual10.002.0012.00
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1212.6124.73safe8.42–15.839.23–15.9917.65–31.82safer7.39–16.868.30–16.9215.69–33.78actual22.0010.0032.00
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.748.4117.15safe6.22–11.266.11–10.7112.33–21.97safer5.36–12.125.31–11.5110.67–23.63actual16.007.0023.00
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.796.93safe1.55–4.722.37–5.203.93–9.92safer1.02–5.261.89–5.692.91–10.95actual6.003.009.00
Corners
39%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.775.149.91safe2.57–6.983.16–7.125.73–14.10safer1.97–7.572.63–7.664.60–15.23actual12.001.0013.00
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.5952.05safe41.27–53.9145.73–58.37safer39.68–55.5044.13–59.96actual54.0046.00
Passes
30%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction460519979safe394–525455–584849–1109safer377–543437–602814–1144actual409370779
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction84.4585.83safe80.23–88.6681.33–90.34safer78.93–89.9680.00–91.67
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9611.7023.66safe9.10–14.828.76–14.6517.86–29.46safer8.22–15.707.84–15.5716.05–31.27actual11.0016.0027.00
Offsides
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.513.05safe0.33–2.750.34–2.670.67–5.42safer0.00–3.090.01–3.000.00–6.10actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.144.30safe1.10–3.211.02–3.262.13–6.48safer0.83–3.490.73–3.551.56–7.04actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.060.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.250.00–0.44safer0.00–0.350.00–0.390.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
39%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.765.38safe1.20–4.031.20–4.312.41–8.34safer0.81–4.420.77–4.741.59–9.16actual1.009.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.58–2.50 0.32–2.76 | 1.00 | 1.54 0.68–2.40 0.44–2.65 | 1.00 | 3.08 1.26–4.90 0.75–5.41 | 2.00 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.18 2.32–6.03 1.82–6.53 | 10.00 | 4.58 2.87–6.28 2.40–6.75 | 2.00 | 8.75 5.19–12.32 4.22–13.28 | 12.00 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.12 8.42–15.83 7.39–16.86 | 22.00 | 12.61 9.23–15.99 8.30–16.92 | 10.00 | 24.73 17.65–31.82 15.69–33.78 | 32.00 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.74 6.22–11.26 5.36–12.12 | 16.00 | 8.41 6.11–10.71 5.31–11.51 | 7.00 | 17.15 12.33–21.97 10.67–23.63 | 23.00 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.55–4.72 1.02–5.26 | 6.00 | 3.79 2.37–5.20 1.89–5.69 | 3.00 | 6.93 3.93–9.92 2.91–10.95 | 9.00 | 33% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 4.77 2.57–6.98 1.97–7.57 | 12.00 | 5.14 3.16–7.12 2.63–7.66 | 1.00 | 9.91 5.73–14.10 4.60–15.23 | 13.00 | 39% 48% |
| Possession % | 47.59 41.27–53.91 39.68–55.50 | 54.00 | 52.05 45.73–58.37 44.13–59.96 | 46.00 | — | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 460 394–525 377–543 | 409 | 519 455–584 437–602 | 370 | 979 849–1109 814–1144 | 779 | 30% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.45 80.23–88.66 78.93–89.96 | — | 85.83 81.33–90.34 80.00–91.67 | — | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 11.96 9.10–14.82 8.22–15.70 | 11.00 | 11.70 8.76–14.65 7.84–15.57 | 16.00 | 23.66 17.86–29.46 16.05–31.27 | 27.00 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.33–2.75 0.00–3.09 | 3.00 | 1.51 0.34–2.67 0.01–3.00 | 1.00 | 3.05 0.67–5.42 0.00–6.10 | 4.00 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.10–3.21 0.83–3.49 | 3.00 | 2.14 1.02–3.26 0.73–3.55 | 1.00 | 4.30 2.13–6.48 1.56–7.04 | 4.00 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.20–4.03 0.81–4.42 | 1.00 | 2.76 1.20–4.31 0.77–4.74 | 9.00 | 5.38 2.41–8.34 1.59–9.16 | 10.00 | 39% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+