UEFA Nations League·League A - 6·
UEFA Nations League·League A - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.173.13safe0.99–2.930.32–2.031.31–4.95safer0.74–3.180.09–2.260.83–5.43
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.573.859.42safe3.70–7.432.11–5.605.82–13.03safer3.21–7.921.65–6.064.86–13.98
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9211.2327.15safe12.00–19.857.67–14.8019.67–34.64safer10.90–20.946.71–15.7517.62–36.69
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.677.8918.56safe7.72–13.615.21–10.5712.93–24.18safer6.89–14.444.47–11.3111.37–25.75
Blocked shots
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.643.107.75safe2.76–6.521.45–4.764.21–11.28safer2.22–7.070.96–5.253.18–12.32
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.054.3210.37safe3.84–8.272.32–6.326.16–14.58safer3.27–8.841.78–6.855.05–15.69
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction57.0543.11safe50.26–63.8436.33–49.89safer48.59–65.5134.65–51.57
Passes
87%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction5684351003safe501–636368–501869–1137safer483–654351–519834–1172
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction76.7074.76safe72.68–80.7370.44–79.09safer71.38–82.0369.13–80.40
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3211.2221.54safe7.48–13.168.28–14.1715.76–27.32safer6.73–13.917.53–14.9214.26–28.83
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.251.673.92safe1.09–3.410.58–2.771.67–6.18safer0.79–3.710.29–3.051.08–6.77
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.883.41safe0.48–2.580.75–3.011.23–5.59safer0.21–2.840.46–3.300.68–6.15
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.546.32safe1.34–4.211.99–5.103.33–9.31safer0.95–4.601.56–5.522.51–10.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 0.99–2.93 0.74–3.18 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 3.13 1.31–4.95 0.83–5.43 | 56% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.57 3.70–7.43 3.21–7.92 | 3.85 2.11–5.60 1.65–6.06 | 9.42 5.82–13.03 4.86–13.98 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.92 12.00–19.85 10.90–20.94 | 11.23 7.67–14.80 6.71–15.75 | 27.15 19.67–34.64 17.62–36.69 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.67 7.72–13.61 6.89–14.44 | 7.89 5.21–10.57 4.47–11.31 | 18.56 12.93–24.18 11.37–25.75 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.64 2.76–6.52 2.22–7.07 | 3.10 1.45–4.76 0.96–5.25 | 7.75 4.21–11.28 3.18–12.32 | 64% 23% |
| Corners | 6.05 3.84–8.27 3.27–8.84 | 4.32 2.32–6.32 1.78–6.85 | 10.37 6.16–14.58 5.05–15.69 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 57.05 50.26–63.84 48.59–65.51 | 43.11 36.33–49.89 34.65–51.57 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 568 501–636 483–654 | 435 368–501 351–519 | 1003 869–1137 834–1172 | 87% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.70 72.68–80.73 71.38–82.03 | 74.76 70.44–79.09 69.13–80.40 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 10.32 7.48–13.16 6.73–13.91 | 11.22 8.28–14.17 7.53–14.92 | 21.54 15.76–27.32 14.26–28.83 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.25 1.09–3.41 0.79–3.71 | 1.67 0.58–2.77 0.29–3.05 | 3.92 1.67–6.18 1.08–6.77 | 51% 20% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.21–2.84 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.41 1.23–5.59 0.68–6.15 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 3.54 1.99–5.10 1.56–5.52 | 6.32 3.33–9.31 2.51–10.12 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.