Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Glenn Nyberg
Goals
15%
21%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction0.861.992.85safe0.00–1.821.13–2.851.03–4.67safer0.00–2.080.89–3.100.52–5.18actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.085.248.32safe1.23–4.943.53–6.954.76–11.89safer0.73–5.443.06–7.413.79–12.85actual4.009.0013.00
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1915.2226.41safe7.48–14.8911.84–18.6019.32–33.49safer6.45–15.9210.91–19.5317.36–35.45actual9.0026.0035.00
Shots in box
22%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction6.609.2015.80safe4.08–9.116.90–11.5010.98–20.62safer3.22–9.986.11–12.309.32–22.28actual7.0016.0023.00
Blocked shots
27%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.916.72safe1.23–4.402.50–5.323.72–9.72safer0.69–4.932.01–5.812.70–10.74actual1.007.008.00
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.165.389.54safe1.95–6.363.40–7.365.35–13.72safer1.36–6.962.87–7.904.22–14.85actual2.006.008.00
Possession %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction42.2658.16safe35.95–48.5851.84–64.48safer34.35–50.1850.25–66.08actual39.0061.00
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction364497861safe299–429432–561731–991safer281–447415–579696–1026actual378588966
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction78.3184.80safe74.09–82.5280.30–89.31safer72.79–83.8278.96–90.64
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9510.8722.83safe9.10–14.817.93–13.8217.02–28.63safer8.21–15.697.01–14.7415.22–30.43actual11.007.0018.00
Offsides
23%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.282.063.34safe0.07–2.490.90–3.230.97–5.72safer0.00–2.830.57–3.560.30–6.39actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
45%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.703.71safe0.95–3.060.58–2.821.53–5.88safer0.68–3.330.29–3.110.97–6.45actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.952.516.46safe2.54–5.370.95–4.063.49–9.43safer2.15–5.750.52–4.492.67–10.25actual7.003.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.86 0.00–1.82 0.00–2.08 | 1.00 | 1.99 1.13–2.85 0.89–3.10 | 2.00 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.52–5.18 | 3.00 | 15% 21% 64% |
| Shots on target | 3.08 1.23–4.94 0.73–5.44 | 4.00 | 5.24 3.53–6.95 3.06–7.41 | 9.00 | 8.32 4.76–11.89 3.79–12.85 | 13.00 | 18% 72% |
| Total shots | 11.19 7.48–14.89 6.45–15.92 | 9.00 | 15.22 11.84–18.60 10.91–19.53 | 26.00 | 26.41 19.32–33.49 17.36–35.45 | 35.00 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 6.60 4.08–9.11 3.22–9.98 | 7.00 | 9.20 6.90–11.50 6.11–12.30 | 16.00 | 15.80 10.98–20.62 9.32–22.28 | 23.00 | 22% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 2.81 1.23–4.40 0.69–4.93 | 1.00 | 3.91 2.50–5.32 2.01–5.81 | 7.00 | 6.72 3.72–9.72 2.70–10.74 | 8.00 | 27% 14% 59% |
| Corners | 4.16 1.95–6.36 1.36–6.96 | 2.00 | 5.38 3.40–7.36 2.87–7.90 | 6.00 | 9.54 5.35–13.72 4.22–14.85 | 8.00 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 42.26 35.95–48.58 34.35–50.18 | 39.00 | 58.16 51.84–64.48 50.25–66.08 | 61.00 | — | — | 14% 83% |
| Passes | 364 299–429 281–447 | 378 | 497 432–561 415–579 | 588 | 861 731–991 696–1026 | 966 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.31 74.09–82.52 72.79–83.82 | — | 84.80 80.30–89.31 78.96–90.64 | — | — | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 11.95 9.10–14.81 8.21–15.69 | 11.00 | 10.87 7.93–13.82 7.01–14.74 | 7.00 | 22.83 17.02–28.63 15.22–30.43 | 18.00 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.28 0.07–2.49 0.00–2.83 | 2.00 | 2.06 0.90–3.23 0.57–3.56 | 2.00 | 3.34 0.97–5.72 0.30–6.39 | 4.00 | 23% 21% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.95–3.06 0.68–3.33 | 2.00 | 1.70 0.58–2.82 0.29–3.11 | 1.00 | 3.71 1.53–5.88 0.97–6.45 | 3.00 | 45% 21% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.95 2.54–5.37 2.15–5.75 | 7.00 | 2.51 0.95–4.06 0.52–4.49 | 3.00 | 6.46 3.49–9.43 2.67–10.25 | 10.00 | 64% 14% 22% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.