Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Donatas Rumsas
Goals
61%
22%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.830.832.66safe0.87–2.790.00–1.690.84–4.48safer0.61–3.050.00–1.930.33–4.99actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.162.488.64safe4.31–8.020.77–4.185.08–12.20safer3.81–8.520.30–4.654.11–13.17actual5.001.006.00
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction17.738.3626.09safe14.03–21.434.98–11.7419.01–33.17safer13.00–22.464.05–12.6717.05–35.13actual23.005.0028.00
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.255.7316.98safe8.73–13.763.43–8.0412.16–21.80safer7.87–14.632.64–8.8310.50–23.46actual17.005.0022.00
Blocked shots
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.242.196.44safe2.66–5.830.78–3.613.44–9.44safer2.13–6.360.29–4.092.42–10.46actual7.000.007.00
Corners
82%
homeawaytotalprediction6.823.4610.28safe4.62–9.031.48–5.446.10–14.46safer4.02–9.620.94–5.974.96–15.59actual10.002.0012.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.1337.09safe56.81–69.4530.77–43.41safer55.21–71.0429.17–45.00actual61.0039.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction603342945safe538–669277–406815–1075safer520–686260–424780–1110actual6273931020
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction90.0180.86safe85.80–94.2376.36–85.37safer84.49–95.5375.03–86.70
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5111.1421.64safe7.65–13.368.19–14.0815.84–27.45safer6.76–14.257.27–15.0014.04–29.25actual12.0010.0022.00
Offsides
40%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.503.08safe0.37–2.790.34–2.660.71–5.45safer0.02–3.130.01–3.000.03–6.13actual3.003.006.00
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.213.96safe0.69–2.811.09–3.331.79–6.14safer0.42–3.080.80–3.621.23–6.70actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.11safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.725.90safe0.77–3.602.16–5.272.93–8.87safer0.38–3.991.73–5.702.11–9.69actual0.004.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.87–2.79 0.61–3.05 | 1.00 | 0.83 0.00–1.69 0.00–1.93 | 0.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.33–4.99 | 1.00 | 61% 22% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.16 4.31–8.02 3.81–8.52 | 5.00 | 2.48 0.77–4.18 0.30–4.65 | 1.00 | 8.64 5.08–12.20 4.11–13.17 | 6.00 | 87% |
| Total shots | 17.73 14.03–21.43 13.00–22.46 | 23.00 | 8.36 4.98–11.74 4.05–12.67 | 5.00 | 26.09 19.01–33.17 17.05–35.13 | 28.00 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 11.25 8.73–13.76 7.87–14.63 | 17.00 | 5.73 3.43–8.04 2.64–8.83 | 5.00 | 16.98 12.16–21.80 10.50–23.46 | 22.00 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.24 2.66–5.83 2.13–6.36 | 7.00 | 2.19 0.78–3.61 0.29–4.09 | 0.00 | 6.44 3.44–9.44 2.42–10.46 | 7.00 | 73% 15% |
| Corners | 6.82 4.62–9.03 4.02–9.62 | 10.00 | 3.46 1.48–5.44 0.94–5.97 | 2.00 | 10.28 6.10–14.46 4.96–15.59 | 12.00 | 82% |
| Possession % | 63.13 56.81–69.45 55.21–71.04 | 61.00 | 37.09 30.77–43.41 29.17–45.00 | 39.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 603 538–669 520–686 | 627 | 342 277–406 260–424 | 393 | 945 815–1075 780–1110 | 1020 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 90.01 85.80–94.23 84.49–95.53 | — | 80.86 76.36–85.37 75.03–86.70 | — | — | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 10.51 7.65–13.36 6.76–14.25 | 12.00 | 11.14 8.19–14.08 7.27–15.00 | 10.00 | 21.64 15.84–27.45 14.04–29.25 | 22.00 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.37–2.79 0.02–3.13 | 3.00 | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.01–3.00 | 3.00 | 3.08 0.71–5.45 0.03–6.13 | 6.00 | 40% 24% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.69–2.81 0.42–3.08 | 0.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 1.00 | 3.96 1.79–6.14 1.23–6.70 | 1.00 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.77–3.60 0.38–3.99 | 0.00 | 3.72 2.16–5.27 1.73–5.70 | 4.00 | 5.90 2.93–8.87 2.11–9.69 | 4.00 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.