Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tobias Stieler
Goals
40%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.432.97safe0.58–2.510.57–2.291.15–4.80safer0.32–2.770.32–2.530.64–5.30actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.504.038.54safe2.65–6.362.32–5.744.97–12.10safer2.15–6.861.86–6.214.00–13.07actual7.007.0014.00
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4011.4624.85safe9.69–17.108.08–14.8417.77–31.94safer8.66–18.137.15–15.7715.81–33.90actual13.0013.0026.00
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.017.4417.45safe7.50–12.535.14–9.7412.63–22.27safer6.63–13.394.34–10.5410.97–23.93actual11.007.0018.00
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.493.056.54safe1.91–5.081.64–4.473.54–9.54safer1.37–5.611.15–4.952.52–10.56actual3.002.005.00
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.814.3210.13safe3.61–8.022.34–6.305.95–14.32safer3.01–8.611.80–6.834.82–15.45actual4.008.0012.00
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction52.5545.98safe46.24–58.8739.66–52.30safer44.64–60.4738.06–53.90actual49.0051.00
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction528467996safe463–593403–532866–1125safer445–611385–550830–1161actual5095231032
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction85.1182.80safe80.89–89.3278.29–87.31safer79.59–90.6276.96–88.64
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction9.629.7419.36safe6.76–12.486.79–12.6813.55–25.16safer5.88–13.365.88–13.6011.75–26.96actual14.0010.0024.00
Offsides
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.613.07safe0.25–2.670.45–2.780.70–5.44safer0.00–3.010.12–3.110.02–6.12actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
35%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.813.44safe0.58–2.690.69–2.931.27–5.62safer0.31–2.970.40–3.220.71–6.18actual0.003.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.250.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.725.44safe1.30–4.131.16–4.272.47–8.41safer0.92–4.520.73–4.701.65–9.23actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.51 0.32–2.77 | 3.00 | 1.43 0.57–2.29 0.32–2.53 | 2.00 | 2.97 1.15–4.80 0.64–5.30 | 5.00 | 40% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.65–6.36 2.15–6.86 | 7.00 | 4.03 2.32–5.74 1.86–6.21 | 7.00 | 8.54 4.97–12.10 4.00–13.07 | 14.00 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.40 9.69–17.10 8.66–18.13 | 13.00 | 11.46 8.08–14.84 7.15–15.77 | 13.00 | 24.85 17.77–31.94 15.81–33.90 | 26.00 | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 10.01 7.50–12.53 6.63–13.39 | 11.00 | 7.44 5.14–9.74 4.34–10.54 | 7.00 | 17.45 12.63–22.27 10.97–23.93 | 18.00 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.91–5.08 1.37–5.61 | 3.00 | 3.05 1.64–4.47 1.15–4.95 | 2.00 | 6.54 3.54–9.54 2.52–10.56 | 5.00 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 5.81 3.61–8.02 3.01–8.61 | 4.00 | 4.32 2.34–6.30 1.80–6.83 | 8.00 | 10.13 5.95–14.32 4.82–15.45 | 12.00 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 52.55 46.24–58.87 44.64–60.47 | 49.00 | 45.98 39.66–52.30 38.06–53.90 | 51.00 | — | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 528 463–593 445–611 | 509 | 467 403–532 385–550 | 523 | 996 866–1125 830–1161 | 1032 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.11 80.89–89.32 79.59–90.62 | — | 82.80 78.29–87.31 76.96–88.64 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 9.62 6.76–12.48 5.88–13.36 | 14.00 | 9.74 6.79–12.68 5.88–13.60 | 10.00 | 19.36 13.55–25.16 11.75–26.96 | 24.00 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.25–2.67 0.00–3.01 | 1.00 | 1.61 0.45–2.78 0.12–3.11 | 2.00 | 3.07 0.70–5.44 0.02–6.12 | 3.00 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.58–2.69 0.31–2.97 | 0.00 | 1.81 0.69–2.93 0.40–3.22 | 3.00 | 3.44 1.27–5.62 0.71–6.18 | 3.00 | 35% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 1.00 | 0.05 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 1.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.30–4.13 0.92–4.52 | 5.00 | 2.72 1.16–4.27 0.73–4.70 | 4.00 | 5.44 2.47–8.41 1.65–9.23 | 9.00 | 41% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.