Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Georgi Nikolov Kabakov
Goals
58%
23%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.840.962.79safe0.88–2.800.10–1.820.97–4.62safer0.62–3.060.00–2.060.47–5.12actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.923.057.96safe3.06–6.771.34–4.764.40–11.53safer2.56–7.270.87–5.223.43–12.50actual9.001.0010.00
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction14.658.8123.46safe10.95–18.365.43–12.1916.38–30.54safer9.92–19.394.50–13.1214.42–32.51actual19.005.0024.00
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction10.865.5116.37safe8.35–13.383.21–7.8111.55–21.19safer7.48–14.242.41–8.619.89–22.85actual15.003.0018.00
Blocked shots
69%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.252.446.69safe2.67–5.831.03–3.863.69–9.69safer2.13–6.370.54–4.342.67–10.71actual3.002.005.00
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.003.539.53safe3.79–8.201.55–5.515.34–13.71safer3.20–8.801.01–6.044.21–14.84actual4.002.006.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.3641.93safe53.04–65.6835.61–48.25safer51.45–67.2834.01–49.84actual51.0049.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction526358884safe461–591293–423754–1014safer443–609276–440719–1049actual457440897
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction86.7178.59safe82.50–90.9374.08–83.10safer81.20–92.2372.75–84.43
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2510.1721.42safe8.39–14.117.22–13.1115.62–27.22safer7.51–14.996.31–14.0313.81–29.03actual15.004.0019.00
Offsides
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.262.78safe0.31–2.730.09–2.420.40–5.15safer0.00–3.070.00–2.750.00–5.82actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
35%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.963.72safe0.70–2.810.84–3.081.54–5.89safer0.42–3.080.55–3.370.98–6.45actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.060.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.250.00–0.44safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.74actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.985.31safe0.92–3.751.43–4.542.35–8.28safer0.53–4.141.00–4.971.52–9.10actual0.006.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.88–2.80 0.62–3.06 | 3.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.06 | 1.00 | 2.79 0.97–4.62 0.47–5.12 | 4.00 | 58% 23% 19% |
| Shots on target | 4.92 3.06–6.77 2.56–7.27 | 9.00 | 3.05 1.34–4.76 0.87–5.22 | 1.00 | 7.96 4.40–11.53 3.43–12.50 | 10.00 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 14.65 10.95–18.36 9.92–19.39 | 19.00 | 8.81 5.43–12.19 4.50–13.12 | 5.00 | 23.46 16.38–30.54 14.42–32.51 | 24.00 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 10.86 8.35–13.38 7.48–14.24 | 15.00 | 5.51 3.21–7.81 2.41–8.61 | 3.00 | 16.37 11.55–21.19 9.89–22.85 | 18.00 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 2.67–5.83 2.13–6.37 | 3.00 | 2.44 1.03–3.86 0.54–4.34 | 2.00 | 6.69 3.69–9.69 2.67–10.71 | 5.00 | 69% 18% |
| Corners | 6.00 3.79–8.20 3.20–8.80 | 4.00 | 3.53 1.55–5.51 1.01–6.04 | 2.00 | 9.53 5.34–13.71 4.21–14.84 | 6.00 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 59.36 53.04–65.68 51.45–67.28 | 51.00 | 41.93 35.61–48.25 34.01–49.84 | 49.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 526 461–591 443–609 | 457 | 358 293–423 276–440 | 440 | 884 754–1014 719–1049 | 897 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.71 82.50–90.93 81.20–92.23 | — | 78.59 74.08–83.10 72.75–84.43 | — | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 11.25 8.39–14.11 7.51–14.99 | 15.00 | 10.17 7.22–13.11 6.31–14.03 | 4.00 | 21.42 15.62–27.22 13.81–29.03 | 19.00 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.31–2.73 0.00–3.07 | 2.00 | 1.26 0.09–2.42 0.00–2.75 | 1.00 | 2.78 0.40–5.15 0.00–5.82 | 3.00 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.81 0.42–3.08 | 3.00 | 1.96 0.84–3.08 0.55–3.37 | 2.00 | 3.72 1.54–5.89 0.98–6.45 | 5.00 | 35% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 1.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 1.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.92–3.75 0.53–4.14 | 0.00 | 2.98 1.43–4.54 1.00–4.97 | 6.00 | 5.31 2.35–8.28 1.52–9.10 | 6.00 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+