UEFA Nations League·League B - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Lawrence Visser
Goals
49%
27%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.440.942.39safe0.48–2.410.08–1.800.56–4.21safer0.22–2.670.00–2.050.06–4.72actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
69%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.282.486.76safe2.43–6.140.77–4.193.20–10.32safer1.93–6.640.30–4.652.23–11.29actual8.001.009.00
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction14.738.8023.52safe11.02–18.435.42–12.1716.44–30.60safer9.99–19.464.49–13.1014.48–32.57actual22.003.0025.00
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction8.926.1315.05safe6.40–11.433.83–8.4310.23–19.86safer5.54–12.303.03–9.238.57–21.53actual16.003.0019.00
Blocked shots
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.402.316.71safe2.82–5.980.90–3.733.72–9.71safer2.28–6.520.41–4.222.70–10.73actual6.000.006.00
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.713.589.29safe3.51–7.921.60–5.555.11–13.47safer2.91–8.511.06–6.093.97–14.61actual1.000.001.00
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction53.6546.60safe47.33–59.9740.28–52.92safer45.74–61.5738.68–54.51actual57.0043.00
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction451427877safe385–516362–491747–1007safer368–534345–509712–1042actual495379874
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction82.4980.07safe78.27–86.7075.57–84.58safer76.97–88.0074.24–85.91
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9311.0421.98safe8.08–13.798.10–13.9916.18–27.78safer7.19–14.687.18–14.9114.37–29.58actual12.0015.0027.00
Offsides
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.302.54safe0.03–2.450.13–2.460.17–4.91safer0.00–2.800.00–2.790.00–5.59actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.164.00safe0.79–2.901.04–3.281.83–6.18safer0.52–3.170.75–3.571.26–6.74actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.544.73safe0.77–3.600.99–4.101.76–7.69safer0.38–3.990.56–4.530.94–8.51actual1.005.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.41 0.22–2.67 | 1.00 | 0.94 0.08–1.80 0.00–2.05 | 0.00 | 2.39 0.56–4.21 0.06–4.72 | 1.00 | 49% 27% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.43–6.14 1.93–6.64 | 8.00 | 2.48 0.77–4.19 0.30–4.65 | 1.00 | 6.76 3.20–10.32 2.23–11.29 | 9.00 | 69% 18% |
| Total shots | 14.73 11.02–18.43 9.99–19.46 | 22.00 | 8.80 5.42–12.17 4.49–13.10 | 3.00 | 23.52 16.44–30.60 14.48–32.57 | 25.00 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 8.92 6.40–11.43 5.54–12.30 | 16.00 | 6.13 3.83–8.43 3.03–9.23 | 3.00 | 15.05 10.23–19.86 8.57–21.53 | 19.00 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.40 2.82–5.98 2.28–6.52 | 6.00 | 2.31 0.90–3.73 0.41–4.22 | 0.00 | 6.71 3.72–9.71 2.70–10.73 | 6.00 | 73% 15% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.51–7.92 2.91–8.51 | 1.00 | 3.58 1.60–5.55 1.06–6.09 | 0.00 | 9.29 5.11–13.47 3.97–14.61 | 1.00 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 53.65 47.33–59.97 45.74–61.57 | 57.00 | 46.60 40.28–52.92 38.68–54.51 | 43.00 | — | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 451 385–516 368–534 | 495 | 427 362–491 345–509 | 379 | 877 747–1007 712–1042 | 874 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.49 78.27–86.70 76.97–88.00 | — | 80.07 75.57–84.58 74.24–85.91 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 10.93 8.08–13.79 7.19–14.68 | 12.00 | 11.04 8.10–13.99 7.18–14.91 | 15.00 | 21.98 16.18–27.78 14.37–29.58 | 27.00 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.24 0.03–2.45 0.00–2.80 | 2.00 | 1.30 0.13–2.46 0.00–2.79 | 0.00 | 2.54 0.17–4.91 0.00–5.59 | 2.00 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.90 0.52–3.17 | 0.00 | 2.16 1.04–3.28 0.75–3.57 | 2.00 | 4.00 1.83–6.18 1.26–6.74 | 2.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.77–3.60 0.38–3.99 | 1.00 | 2.54 0.99–4.10 0.56–4.53 | 5.00 | 4.73 1.76–7.69 0.94–8.51 | 6.00 | 34% 19% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.