UEFA Nations League·League D - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League D - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ante Culina
Goals
33%
29%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.051.132.18safe0.09–2.010.27–1.990.36–4.00safer0.00–2.270.03–2.240.00–4.51actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.178.32safe2.30–6.012.46–5.874.75–11.88safer1.80–6.511.99–6.343.79–12.85actual0.007.007.00
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7712.9125.68safe9.07–16.489.53–16.2918.60–32.77safer8.04–17.518.60–17.2216.64–34.73actual4.0016.0020.00
Shots in box
35%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction6.247.1613.40safe3.72–8.754.86–9.468.58–18.21safer2.86–9.624.06–10.266.92–19.87actual1.0011.0012.00
Blocked shots
49%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.485.42safe1.35–4.521.07–3.902.42–8.41safer0.82–5.050.58–4.381.40–9.43actual0.005.005.00
Corners
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.094.428.50safe1.88–6.292.44–6.394.32–12.69safer1.29–6.891.90–6.933.19–13.82actual0.008.008.00
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.4349.13safe44.11–56.7542.81–55.45safer42.51–58.3441.22–57.05actual27.0073.00
Passes
48%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction394398792safe328–459334–463662–922safer311–477316–481627–957actual2887591047
Pass accuracy %
38%
58%
homeawayprediction76.2978.31safe72.08–80.5173.81–82.82safer70.77–81.8172.48–84.15
Fouls
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4413.2129.65safe13.59–19.3010.27–16.1623.85–35.46safer12.70–20.189.35–17.0822.05–37.26actual15.0014.0029.00
Offsides
47%
20%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.161.813.97safe0.95–3.370.65–2.971.60–6.35safer0.61–3.720.31–3.300.92–7.02actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.244.47safe1.17–3.281.12–3.362.29–6.64safer0.90–3.550.83–3.651.73–7.20actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.110.15safe0.00–0.190.00–0.310.00–0.50safer0.00–0.340.00–0.450.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.543.005.54safe1.12–3.951.45–4.562.57–8.51safer0.74–4.341.02–4.991.75–9.33actual5.000.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.05 0.09–2.01 0.00–2.27 | 0.00 | 1.13 0.27–1.99 0.03–2.24 | 2.00 | 2.18 0.36–4.00 0.00–4.51 | 2.00 | 33% 29% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.30–6.01 1.80–6.51 | 0.00 | 4.17 2.46–5.87 1.99–6.34 | 7.00 | 8.32 4.75–11.88 3.79–12.85 | 7.00 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 12.77 9.07–16.48 8.04–17.51 | 4.00 | 12.91 9.53–16.29 8.60–17.22 | 16.00 | 25.68 18.60–32.77 16.64–34.73 | 20.00 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 6.24 3.72–8.75 2.86–9.62 | 1.00 | 7.16 4.86–9.46 4.06–10.26 | 11.00 | 13.40 8.58–18.21 6.92–19.87 | 12.00 | 35% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 2.94 1.35–4.52 0.82–5.05 | 0.00 | 2.48 1.07–3.90 0.58–4.38 | 5.00 | 5.42 2.42–8.41 1.40–9.43 | 5.00 | 49% 17% 34% |
| Corners | 4.09 1.88–6.29 1.29–6.89 | 0.00 | 4.42 2.44–6.39 1.90–6.93 | 8.00 | 8.50 4.32–12.69 3.19–13.82 | 8.00 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Possession % | 50.43 44.11–56.75 42.51–58.34 | 27.00 | 49.13 42.81–55.45 41.22–57.05 | 73.00 | — | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 394 328–459 311–477 | 288 | 398 334–463 316–481 | 759 | 792 662–922 627–957 | 1047 | 48% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.29 72.08–80.51 70.77–81.81 | — | 78.31 73.81–82.82 72.48–84.15 | — | — | — | 38% 58% |
| Fouls | 16.44 13.59–19.30 12.70–20.18 | 15.00 | 13.21 10.27–16.16 9.35–17.08 | 14.00 | 29.65 23.85–35.46 22.05–37.26 | 29.00 | 69% 25% |
| Offsides | 2.16 0.95–3.37 0.61–3.72 | 0.00 | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.31–3.30 | 1.00 | 3.97 1.60–6.35 0.92–7.02 | 1.00 | 47% 20% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.17–3.28 0.90–3.55 | 1.00 | 2.24 1.12–3.36 0.83–3.65 | 1.00 | 4.47 2.29–6.64 1.73–7.20 | 2.00 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.12–3.95 0.74–4.34 | 5.00 | 3.00 1.45–4.56 1.02–4.99 | 0.00 | 5.54 2.57–8.51 1.75–9.33 | 5.00 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+